NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-10-31 05:15Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the oil and petrochemical industry in China is currently experiencing a prolonged downturn due to "involution" competition, but there is potential for a turnaround through policy measures aimed at high-quality transformation and capacity exit [1][2][3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry faced significant challenges, including overcapacity in low-end products and insufficient high-end offerings, leading to a situation where production increases did not translate into profit growth [17][22] - The report forecasts that oil prices will have a strong bottom support, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $60-65 per barrel by 2026, driven by steady demand growth and OPEC+ production adjustments [1][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the refining sector is undergoing significant changes, with leading companies expected to benefit from the exit of outdated capacities and improved profitability due to stricter tax regulations and effective price guidance [2][3] - In the PTA industry, the report notes that the market is highly concentrated, and self-regulation may lead to spontaneous production cuts, which could improve the overall supply-demand balance [3][4] - The trend towards lightweight materials and the substitution of plastics for steel is expected to drive growth in the modified plastics sector, with companies focusing on high-value specialty engineering plastics [4][3]