航运日报：芬太尼关税下降10%，关注是否有船司发布11月下半月涨价函-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs helps promote the recovery of Sino-US trade, drives the recovery of demand on the US route, and supports the prices of European routes to some extent [3]. - In the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next year's long - term agreement negotiation. The 12 - month contract is expected to first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price increase letter, and so on until delivery [4]. - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5]. - The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 30, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 64,604.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 24,647.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1583.00, 1175.90, 1403.30, 1487.50, 1132.50, and 1843.80 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 24, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1246 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2153 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3032 US dollars/FEU. On October 27, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1312.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1107.32 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the weekly average capacities of China - European base ports are 324,100 TEU, 283,900 TEU, and 321,800 TEU respectively. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. - As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU. Among them, 66 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total of 995,500 TEU and 11 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total of 236,320 TEU have been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain No specific summarized information provided. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific summarized information provided.