国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - sentiment [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated market sentiment [2][13]. - Coke is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the resonance of macro and sector themes [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton (-0.25%); the position increased by 8,698 hands. The prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.0 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jinbuba also increased by 2.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For the futures contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.38%); for HC2601, it was 3,318 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%). The basis of RB2601 increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 3 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 30, weekly data showed that rebar production increased by 5.52 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.1 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 41.09 tons. The Ministry of Commerce and other 5 departments supported eligible commercial real estate projects to issue REITs. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends in production volume and daily output compared with the same period last year and the previous month. In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared with the previous period [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5550 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2605, it was 5648 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5842 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; for silicomanganese 2605, it was 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan/ton [14][15]. - Macro and Industry News: According to iron alloy online, on October 30, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions had different changes. The operating rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu regions in October also changed. In January, the electricity price in Yunnan would rise, and some silicomanganese factories would reduce or stop production. Some steel mills finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon [14][16][17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1288 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-1.1%); for coke J2601, it was 1786.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan (-0.8%). The spot price of some coking coals and cokes changed, and the basis and spread also changed [19]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [20]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing price and trading volume of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 changed. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market also had different daily and weekly price changes [22]. - Macro and Industry News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [24]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].