日度策略参考-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillatory phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. Under the background of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. - For bonds, the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The precious metals (gold and silver) are under short - term pressure due to the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell, but factors such as the decline in market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown still support their prices, and they are expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are all expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors such as macro - environment, production, and supply - demand conditions [1]. - For black metals, the prices of steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil) and related products (such as iron ore, glass, and soda ash) also show oscillatory trends, affected by factors like production, inventory, and macro - sentiment [1]. - For agricultural products, the prices of palm oil, soybean, cotton, sugar, and other products have different trends, influenced by factors such as production, demand, and seasonal factors [1]. - For energy and chemical products, various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, rubber, and chemical fibers have different price trends, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production policy, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand relationship [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - Stock Index: Short - term oscillatory, with support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Precious Metals (Gold and Silver): Short - term oscillatory, pressured by hawkish Fed remarks but supported by other factors [1]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Price回调, but limited downward space [1]. - Aluminum: Oscillatory due to limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentally weak, with increasing production and inventory, and the cost support needs attention [1]. - Zinc: Short - term high - level oscillatory, affected by macro - sentiment and market conditions [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - dominated oscillatory, with high - inventory pressure, and long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term oscillatory, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: Medium - and long - term, attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities [1]. 3.3 Black Metals - Rebar: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Concerned about upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month with upward opportunities, but overall pressured by supply and inventory [1]. - Glass: Price downward space is limited in the short - term, and price fluctuations are strengthened [1]. - Soda Ash: Bullish, but the breakthrough is uncertain [1]. - Coke: Industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the disk rises [1]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Currently pressured by high inventory, waiting for the production - reduction and inventory - removal cycle [1]. - Soybean: Domestic soybean has low valuation, and the disk is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the rebound height is limited [1]. - Cotton: The new - year cotton demand has great uncertainty, and the disk is under pressure but with limited downward space [1]. - Sugar: Seasonally strong in the short - term, but limited rebound space after the new sugar is on the market [1]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: OPEC+ may maintain a small increase in production in November, and the short - term geopolitical speculation cools down [1]. - Rubber (Natural and Synthetic): Different trends, affected by factors such as cost, supply, and market atmosphere [1]. - PTA and Related Products: PTA price is affected by "anti - involution" policy and device conditions, and short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by factors such as crude oil and coal prices, and polyester demand [1]. - Benzene and Related Products: Affected by factors such as benzene price, device operation, and profit [1]. - Plastics (PE, PP, PVC): Different trends, affected by factors such as maintenance, supply, and demand [1]. - Caustic Soda and LPG: Affected by factors such as production plans, inventory, and international market conditions [1].