碳酸锂日评：谨防价格冲高回落-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On October 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, and the situation has improved. The cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the production remains at a high level. After the price increase, the downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. One should be cautious about the price rising and then falling. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - Futures Prices: On October 30, the closing price of the near - month contract was 81,840 yuan/ton (+100), the closing price of the consecutive - one contract was 83,260 yuan/ton (+520), the closing price of the consecutive - two contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), the closing price of the consecutive - three contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), and the closing price was 83,400 yuan/ton (+500) [3]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 829,117 lots (+169,696), and the open interest of the active contract was 532,871 lots (+25,989) [3]. - Inventory: The inventory was 27,641 tons (+116) [3]. - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,420 yuan/ton (-420), the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 260 yuan/ton (-80), and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 3,400 yuan/ton (+350) [3]. - Raw Material Prices: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 944 US dollars/ton (+16), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,380 yuan/ton (+50), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,180 yuan/ton (+50) [3]. - Lithium Product Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton (+850), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 77,800 yuan/ton (+850), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) was 75,380 yuan/ton (+300) [3]. - Other Product Prices: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 106,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 103,850 yuan/ton (0), and the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,805 yuan/ton (+210) [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. In October, the production of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased [3]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3]. Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,641 tons (+116), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises decreased, while the inventory of other sectors increased [3]. News - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene powder ore ended. The auction target was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene powder ore from Wodgma, and the actual transaction price was 7,058 yuan/ton (including tax) [3].