Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks jointly affected prices. In the first half of October, the sharp decline in oil prices under macro - risks significantly affected the cost of asphalt negatively. The demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, while supply remained high, increasing the inventory pressure in the industry chain and pressuring the spot price. In the second half of October, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs, but the supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum. In the future, oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5][40] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Preface and Overview - Market Review: In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [4] - Market Outlook: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [6] 2. Fundamental Situation - Market Review: Similar to the preface, in October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [11] - Supply Overview: From January to September 2025, China's asphalt production was 20.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26 million tons or 12%. In September, the domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.79 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. From January to August 2025, asphalt imports were 2.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.203 million tons (- 7.9%). In September, imports were 0.342 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.073 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.137 million tons. From January to September, imports were 2.717 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.066 million tons (- 2.4%) [15][16] - Demand Overview: In October 2025, domestic asphalt demand was weak. In the north, demand declined after a brief pre - holiday rush due to cooling and rain. In the south, demand was slow to release due to typhoons, rain, and capital constraints. Only a small amount of demand was supported in southern Xinjiang and parts of the southwest. Refinery shipments were at a low level, and terminal demand showed that the road modified asphalt start - up rate was slowly rising but still at a low level, while the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to the lowest level [28] - Inventory and Valuation: In October 2025, domestic asphalt refinery inventories increased overall. Social inventories decreased overall, with a significant difference in the inventory consumption rhythm between the north and the south. The asphalt processing profit increased by about 25 yuan/ton compared to September, and the diluted asphalt premium decreased by 1.7 to - 8.2 US dollars/barrel. The basis in Shandong decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 171 yuan/ton, the basis in South China increased by 15 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China increased by 25 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton [30][33] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Future Outlook: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [40]
沥青11月报：供需边际走弱-20251031
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-31 05:26