宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that PX will fluctuate narrowly, PTA will fluctuate weakly, and PR will fluctuate weakly (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Crude Oil: On October 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $60.57 per barrel, up 0.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.00 per barrel, up 0.12% [1] - Upstream Products: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha: CFR Japan was $572.63 per ton on October 30, 2025, up 0.26%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade): FOB South Korea was $670.00 per ton, down 1.69%; the spot price of p - xylene PX: CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - PTA Futures and Spot: The closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4,570 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer market on October 29, 2025, was $611.00 per ton, up 1.66% [1] - PX Futures and Spot: The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6,588 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 0.96%; the settlement price was 6,632 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The PXN spread was $244.38 per ton, down 1.01%; the PX - MX spread was $147.00 per ton, up 7.69% [1] - PR Futures and Spot: The closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5,666 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 1.05%; the settlement price was 5,708 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,720 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [1] - Downstream Products: The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips on October 30, 2025, was 5,720 yuan per ton, down 0.35%. Other downstream CCFEI price indices remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the PX in the polyester industry chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged at 86.21%, 80.09%, 89.28%, and 73.31% respectively on October 30, 2025. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, up 0.22% [1] Production and Sales - On October 30, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 42.67%, down 6.20%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 42.82%, down 0.75%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 45.79%, up 8.73% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the company will start the new one and shut down the old one [2] Important News and Logic - PX: Overnight, due to positive prospects of China - US meetings and EIA inventory reports, oil prices rebounded, but after the end of the China - US meetings, the cost support for PX weakened. Recently, some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance or will be under maintenance, but the PX supply remains stable. Overseas devices are also operating stably. The call for anti - involution in the industry has increased, but it has limited impact on PX supply and demand in the short term [2] - PTA: The industrial meeting has no unplanned impact on the operating rate. In the morning, the decline in oil prices weakened the cost support for PTA, but the market hoped for active production cuts on the supply side. In the afternoon, the expectation of production cuts on the supply side was not fulfilled, and the PTA spot price followed the futures price down [2] - PR: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,700 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The market atmosphere was weak, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the demand side has limited support for prices [2]