ZPEC(SH:603619) Guoxin Securities·2025-10-31 05:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][15][19] Core Views - The company's revenue remained relatively stable year-on-year, but the decline in oil prices has negatively impacted net profit attributable to shareholders. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.985 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 453 million yuan, down 32.18% year-on-year [1][6] - Oil production reached a record high for a single quarter, with total production of 234,300 tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.07%. However, international oil prices have shown a downward trend, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing by 13.64% and 14.76% year-on-year, respectively [2][12] - The Iraq projects are progressing steadily and are expected to contribute to long-term growth. The company has secured development rights for the EBN and MF blocks in Iraq and is in the process of developing these projects [3][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.003 billion yuan, a decline of 11.44% year-on-year, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, down 36.38% year-on-year. The gross margin was 45.80%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and the net margin was 15.26%, down 5.99 percentage points [1][6] - The total expense ratio increased to 30.54%, up 2.69 percentage points from the previous year [1][6] Oil Production - The company produced 164,900 tons of oil from the Wensu project in Q3 2025, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year, while the Gengke project produced 69,400 tons, an increase of 30.94% year-on-year. Cumulatively, the company produced 673,200 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.20% [2][8] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to the oil price decline but maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating. The expected revenues for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.741 billion, 4.143 billion, and 4.509 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 610 million, 671 million, and 810 million yuan [3][15][17]