宝城期货甲醇早报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and weakening [1][5] - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment fades, the driving force of macro - factors weakens, and there is a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, the external import pressure continues to increase, and the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] - On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.16% to 2,207 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Friday, the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract shows an oscillating and weakening trend [1][5] Driving Logic - Macro - factor: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment fades, the driving force of macro - factors weakens, leading to profit - taking in the market [5] - Supply - side: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase, resulting in high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China [5] - Demand - side: Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.16% to 2,207 yuan/ton [5]