铁铁铁铁铁：需求不足以支撑持续偏强

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [3]. - The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased [3]. - This week, the iron ore output of 247 samples announced by Steel Union was 239.9 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short-term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week-on-week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. - The profits of finished products have continued to decline significantly; the price difference between scrap iron in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [3]. - The average value of the MA index in October was 104, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 822 [3]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has weakened; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has remained stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On October 26, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,655 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Australia was 2,751 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Brazil was 1,196 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [24]. - According to the iron ore balance sheet, the total supply in 2025/10 was 13,237, with production of 2,529 and imports of 10,708. Exports were 147. The total supply cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.1% [181]. Demand - The iron ore output of 247 samples was 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - According to the balance sheet, the consumption in 2025/10 was 12,081, and the total consumption was 12,229 [181]. Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore was 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. Price and Basis - The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased. The 1 - 5 monthly spread has shown a narrow - range oscillation [3][158]. - The prices of various iron ore varieties in the spot market have changed to different degrees. For example, on October 27, 2025, the price of PB powder was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [160]. Market Outlook - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3].