Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The meeting between China and the US today fell short of expectations, and the price of US soybeans declined. The profitability of domestic soybean purchases has improved but remains poor. The domestic futures market has a low multiple, and the short - term expectation is for a rebound to repair the crushing profit. However, the current abundant supply of near - term soybean meal spot and the expected abundant global soybean supply in the long - term limit the upside potential of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent evolution of drivers brought about by China - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - On October 30, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was - 24, with a decrease of - 25. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions showed various declines, such as - 25 in Tianjin and Rizhao [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73, with an increase of 13. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with a change of 23 [6][7]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, with a decrease of - 3; the price difference between the main contracts was 448, with a decrease of - 16 [7]. 3.2 Ascending and Descending Premiums and Profit Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate and the ascending and descending premiums of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 were presented, along with the change in the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans. For example, the spot crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 261.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 [7]. 3.3 Supply Situation - The USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be adjusted downward. Exports depend on China - US policies. As of October 25, according to CONAB data, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will start to reduce inventory in November, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7]. 3.4 Demand Situation - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports current demand. However, the current hog farming is showing losses, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of hogs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. The downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8].
蛋白数据日报-20251031
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-31 05:41