中辉能化观点-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with only natural gas rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1][2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of the oil market remains supply surplus, and oil prices are expected to decline. The fundamentals of most energy and chemical products are weak, with supply pressure and uncertain demand. However, natural gas may rise due to increased demand in the peak season [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. The current core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [1][9] - Logic: OPEC+ may increase production in December. India's crude oil import increased in September. U.S. commercial crude and refined product inventories showed different trends. Geopolitical sanctions and macro - events provide some support, but overall, supply surplus dominates [9][10] - Strategy: Hold existing short positions and can add short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - Core Viewpoint: Bearish. The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil, and it turns weak as the cost side declines [1][15] - Logic: The short - term geopolitical risk eases, and the cost side (crude oil) corrects. The supply decreases slightly, the demand side shows some resilience, and the port inventory increases [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - Core Viewpoint: Bearish consolidation. Cost support weakens, and the supply is in a loose pattern [1][20] - Logic: Cost support weakens, social inventory decreases slightly, and the upper - middle stream inventory pressure is neutral. Import is expected to increase, and new device production will add to the supply. The demand peak season has insufficient restocking power [20] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Be bearish at high levels. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - Core Viewpoint: Bearish consolidation. The basis weakens, and there is a high de - stocking pressure in the future [1][25] - Logic: The spot price lags behind the futures price increase. The upstream device maintenance increases, but the demand is at the end of the peak season. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Be bearish at high levels. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - Core Viewpoint: Bearish rebound. Low - valuation provides support, but there is an over - supply problem [1][29] - Logic: Low - valuation supports, and the export may increase due to India's policy window. New production capacity has been released, and attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can cut production. [29] - Strategy: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Participate in short - term rebounds with light positions. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Short - term supply - demand improvement is against the backdrop of pressured oil prices [1][31] - Logic: Supply - side devices at home and abroad continue to reduce load, and demand is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels. The cost - end oil price rebounds but has limited upside [31] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Arbitrage by going long PTA and short PX. Focus on the PX range of [6520 - 6630] [32] PTA - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. There is a short - term rebound due to supply - demand improvement and market speculation [2][34] - Logic: New devices are about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and future device maintenance may increase. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in November [34] - Strategy: There is no obvious unilateral trend. Arbitrage by going long PTA and short PX. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium - long term. Focus on the TA range of [4530 - 4600] [35] MEG - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Low valuation but lack of upward drive [2][37] - Logic: Domestic devices reduce load, overseas devices increase load slightly. New device production and the recovery of maintenance devices increase supply pressure. Terminal consumption improves slightly but lacks stability, and inventory may accumulate in November [37] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [38] Methanol - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking inflection point [2][41] - Logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply side has pressure with high import in October. The demand side shows slight improvement, and the cost support is weak and stable [41] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Arbitrage by MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2180 - 2230] [43] Urea - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Low valuation but potential downside risk [2][45] - Logic: Supply is relatively loose as production resumes. Domestic agricultural demand improves slightly, and export is good. Inventory is at a high level, and cost support exists [45] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Try long positions lightly in the medium - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1615 - 1655] [47] Natural Gas - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bullish. The demand side is expected to warm up as the temperature drops [5] - Logic: Geopolitical sanctions risks are released, the demand for heating increases as the temperature cools, and the supply is sufficient [5] - Strategy: Not mentioned [5]