南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of tight supply of high - protein edible soybeans supports the anti - seasonal price increase. However, with the progress of Sino - US negotiations to resume agricultural product trade, the domestic soybean market is expected to face short - term pressure. The market also needs to pay attention to whether the selling pressure emerges and the behavior changes caused by sentiment fermentation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Prediction and Risk Strategy - Price Range Prediction: The predicted monthly price range for the bean one 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.37% and a historical percentile of 26.0% [2]. - Risk Strategies: - Inventory Management for Sellers: For those with long positions due to large new - bean selling pressure in autumn or weakened bargaining power during the concentrated listing period, strategies include shorting bean one futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100, and selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at 30 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [2]. - Procurement Management for Buyers: For those worried about rising raw - material prices, the strategy is to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are considered after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2]. Core Contradictions and Market Influences - Likely Positive Factors: The decrease in the national high - protein soybean yield supports market sentiment, and the uninitiated state - reserve purchase restricts price decline. But the impact of yield reduction is gradually weakening [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations to resume agricultural product trade is negative for the domestic soybean market. Also, as repayment orders are executed, the rigid demand at the procurement end may decline, and there is still a bottleneck in the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans [3]. Market Data - Spot Price and Basis: On October 30, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3900, 3860, 3940, and 3970 respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 203, - 253, - 173, and - 143 [3]. - Futures Closing Price: On October 30, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of bean one contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 decreased by - 0.29%, - 0.24%, - 0.36%, - 0.48%, - 0.41%, and - 0.50% respectively [5].