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Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-10-31 05:58

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Pure Benzene: The view is bearish. Supply is still abundant this week with no new maintenance capacity. Imports are expected to increase in November. Demand is expected to decrease marginally as the overall downstream operating rate continues to decline. Total inventory is expected to accumulate, and the valuation of pure benzene is low [4]. - Styrene: The view is bearish. Supply has decreased this week due to poor profits and multiple device overhauls. Demand for the three S products is stable overall, but the market sentiment has not fully recovered, and finished - product inventory is still accumulating. Port inventory is expected to accumulate in November, and the valuation of styrene is low [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - Supply: Real - time supply is abundant. There was no new maintenance last week, and the maintenance volume is expected to decline in November. Hydrogenated benzene has more parked capacity. Imports in the first 20 days of October decreased by about 60,000 tons month - on - month, and are expected to rebound in November [4][20]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate may weaken, and profits remain low. The demand for styrene is weak, and the overall demand for pure benzene is expected to gradually weaken [21][33]. - Inventory: The East China port inventory of pure benzene last week was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. Overall, the fundamentals of pure benzene are under pressure, and port inventory may accumulate in the future [50]. - Valuation: The BZN spread is low, and the valuation of pure benzene is low due to abundant supply in the Asian region [50]. - External Market Support: The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. In North America, the styrene demand is weak; in Western Europe, the supply of benzene is in surplus, and downstream demand is expected to further weaken; in Asia, some South Korean producers have reduced their loads, and the operating rate of Chinese downstream industries has declined [51][56]. Styrene - Supply: There were new overhauls last week, and the maintenance volume is expected to remain high in November. The supply in November is expected to decrease month - on - month [60][61]. - Demand: The overall downstream profits are good, but the demand for the three S products is still weak. The market sentiment has not fully recovered, and sales are mainly for rigid demand. Multiple devices of ABS are expected to be put into production from November to December, and the output of ABS is expected to increase [80][101]. - Inventory: The overall port inventory increased to 235,500 tons last week. Styrene is expected to accumulate inventory in the future [94][100]. - Valuation: The BZ - SM spread is weak, and the valuation of styrene is low [7]. - External Market Support: In North America, downstream demand is poor, and supply is in surplus; in Western Europe, demand is weak, and the operating rate is low due to low profits; in Asia, demand outside China is generally weak [119]. Pricing Logic - Styrene Basis: The basis is weak due to weak downstream demand and high inventory. The styrene futures price structure is in a contango, indicating a pessimistic outlook [108]. - Pure Benzene Monthly Spread: The downstream demand is weak, and supply is relatively high, so the paper - goods monthly spread is expected to be weak [108]. Profit Situation - Styrene Profit: Currently, styrene is in excess supply, and with future production increases, profits may further decline or remain at a low level [111].