新能源及有色金属日报：铜价暂陷震荡格局，需求端发力或仍需时日-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of copper is cautiously bullish, arbitrage is on hold, and the option strategy is short put [8] Core View of the Report - The copper price is temporarily in a volatile pattern, and it may take some time for the demand side to gain momentum. Although the copper price is in a pattern where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, the current demand side has no outstanding performance. When the price approaches or exceeds 90,000 yuan/ton, enterprises with selling hedging needs can choose the right time to operate [1][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Market: On October 30, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 88,780 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 87,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 87,380 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 87,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] - Spot Market: According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 130 yuan to a premium of 20 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 55 yuan, a slight increase of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The price range of electrolytic copper was 87,800 - 88,330 yuan/ton. The market's purchasing and sales sentiment has slightly improved, and downstream buyers are making rigid demand purchases at low prices. It is expected that the downstream's willingness to stock up will increase tomorrow, but holders are not willing to sell at high copper prices, and transactions will still be concentrated on low - priced resources [2] Important Information Summary - Sino - US Relations: The leaders of China and the United States held a meeting. The two countries' economic and trade teams exchanged in - depth views on important economic and trade issues and reached a consensus on solving problems. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [3] - Central Bank Policies: The European Central Bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level and is not in a hurry to adjust policies. Although the euro - zone economy has shown better - than - expected growth and certain resilience, geopolitical tensions and US tariff uncertainties still pose risks [3] Mining End - New Gold released strong third - quarter results. The mine in Ontario set a record high output, and the Rainy River gold mine's third - quarter gold output increased by 63% compared with the second quarter, reaching 100,301 ounces, with a significant 39% reduction in full cost. The New Afton copper - gold mine produced 14,912 ounces of gold and 12 million pounds of copper in the third quarter. The combined gold output of the two mines in the third quarter was 15,213 ounces, providing key support for achieving the annual target [4] Smelting and Import - Codelco is reviewing its operation and investment plans for the next few years. Some internal managers are promoting a strategic shift to prioritize profits over output. The company is evaluating plans for "marginal assets" in its annual planning meeting, including the Gabriela Mistral (Gaby) mine with the lowest ore grade and the Potrerillos smelter. No decision has been made yet [4] Consumption - The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 14th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" guides the supply - demand pattern of non - ferrous metals. Green metals such as copper and aluminum benefit from new energy and power grid construction, and photovoltaic and wind power projects also drive demand growth, while the supply side is continuously tight due to energy consumption constraints. New energy minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt are empowered by policies. Traditional metals such as zinc and lead mainly rely on infrastructure investment, and high - end varieties such as high - purity gallium and tungsten carbide see rising demand driven by emerging industries [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 775 tons to 134,950 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,692 tons to 37,437 tons. On October 30, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 182,600 tons, a change of - 19,000 tons compared with the previous week [6][7]