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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent significant correction in gold prices, with a cumulative decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 per ounce, mainly due to technical selling pressure caused by over - heated bullish sentiment in overseas markets after nine consecutive weeks of price increases [3] - The fundamental logic supporting the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, and the current decline has sufficiently released short - term risks, so the price correction is a "comma" in the long - term upward trend [3] - The ebb of risk - aversion sentiment is an important factor driving the decline in gold prices, and investors' high - level profit - taking is a reasonable and necessary operation [3] - Even if gold prices stop falling at the current level, they may not immediately resume a rapid upward trend. Attention should be paid to the change in volatility, and a stable and declining volatility may indicate the approaching of the next upward cycle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates - A 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this week is almost certain. The expected interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 have been revised down to 48.4bps, 3bps less than the previous week, mainly due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment [7] - The September CPI reading showed no upward inflation risk. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3% [7] - Last week, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 30 - year UST yield falling by 0.77bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield falling by 0.23bps to 4.01%, and the 2 - year UST yield rising by 2.27bps to 3.49%, causing the yield curve to flatten [11] Fed's Operations - The Fed is considering ending the balance - sheet reduction within a few months. Last week, the ONRRP usage volume increased by $6.05 billion to $10.06 billion, corresponding to the rise in TGA balance. The Fed's reserve balance increased by $58 billion to $2.93 trillion [14] Bond Positions - As of September 23, the positions of short - and long - term U.S. Treasury bond interest rates were differentiated. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures decreased by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198 contracts, while those of 10 - year UST futures increased by 24,817 contracts to 844,116 contracts [18] - As of the week of October 20, the sentiment of JPM's net long - position investors in Treasury bonds was 9, down from the previous week [19] Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS decreased. The 5 - year TIPS yield fell by 6bps to 1.24%, and the 10 - year TIPS yield fell by 1bp to 1.73% [27] Dollar Index - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell by 3.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.39% to 98.9, and their rolling correlation increased [35] - The U.S. dollar appreciated by 1.4% against the Japanese yen, remained flat against the euro, and appreciated by 0.5% against the British pound [35] - As of September 23, the total positions of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 1,541 contracts to 14,000 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1,009 contracts to 24,400 contracts. Short - selling forces were dominant [41] Offshore Dollar Liquidity - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap for the Japanese yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity increased [44] Inflation Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.66, with copper prices rising and gold prices falling, indicating a marginal recovery in global total demand momentum [51] Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated upwards as the decline of gold prices was smaller than that of silver prices last week; the gold - to - copper ratio decreased as gold prices fell and copper prices rose; the gold - to - oil ratio decreased as oil prices rose and gold prices fell [60] - The correlation between gold and crude oil, copper, and the dollar index decreased from a rolling correlation perspective [68] - Despite the significant decline in the absolute price of gold, the domestic - foreign premium has recently increased, indicating domestic investors' buying behavior [75] Inventory and Positions - Last week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 344,400 ounces to 38.688 million ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 13.9103 million ounces to 492.557 million ounces; the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.45 tons to about 87 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 91.9 tons to 657.4 tons [80] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 19.7 tons to 1,038.9 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 428.9 tons to 15,340.8 tons [86] - The total COMEX gold positions increased by 12,568 contracts to 529,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 6,030 contracts to 333,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions increasing by 5,691 contracts to 66,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for gold allocation [93] - The total COMEX silver positions increased by 2,851 contracts to 165,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 695 contracts to 72,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions decreasing by 43 contracts to 20,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for silver allocation [98]