GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-31 06:19Macro Research - The report highlights the increasing divergence in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path due to the "data fog" caused by the U.S. government shutdown and the realities of economic and inflation trends. The expectation for a rate cut in December has been adjusted downward compared to pre-meeting expectations [2][3][26] - The report anticipates a continued preventive rate cut cycle, with U.S. Treasury yields slowing down, sustained support for U.S. stocks, a fluctuating U.S. dollar index, and an ongoing long-term bull market for gold [4][27] Food and Beverage Research - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 2025 growth has slowed to flat with slight increases, impacted by price inversion in series wines and some direct sales channels. The company aims for sustainable high-quality growth and has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6][7] - The report indicates that Moutai's Q3 revenue was CNY 398.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with net profit at CNY 192.24 billion, up 0.5%. The company is focusing on improving the quality of its financial reports and aligning with actual market demand [6][7] Paper and Light Industry Research - Hengan International is actively promoting product premiumization, with expectations for continued increases in sales prices. The decline in wood pulp costs is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity [9][10] - The report notes that Hengan's market share has generally improved over the past decade, with a focus on increasing the penetration of high-end products to counteract price competition. The company has launched various high-end wet tissue products, contributing to revenue growth [10][12] Transportation Research - Southern Airlines reported a counter-cyclical profit growth in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations and showing a trend of profitability. The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 23 billion, with a year-on-year increase of over 17% [13][14] - The report emphasizes that the airline's passenger load factor reached a record high of 85.9% in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand recovery and optimistic future profitability trends [14][15]