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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices were high last week, with LME copper slightly falling after hitting resistance but still above the $10,000 mark, and SHFE copper centered around 85,000 yuan. The market sentiment has been high recently, and copper prices seem to deviate from the fundamentals. Volatility is expected to increase in the near term, with a bullish trend overall, but there may be profit - taking situations [3]. - The new round of China - US economic and trade consultations from October 25th to 26th is conducive to alleviating concerns and bringing benefits to both sides' development and the world economy, leading to a positive market reaction at the beginning of this week [3]. - There are many important meetings this week. The APEC leaders' meeting and the China - US presidential meeting are on the schedule, and the Fed will hold a meeting. Attention should be paid to the risk of market corrections when some events are finalized or fall short of expectations [3]. - The current rise in copper prices is mainly driven by capital, and the short - term fundamentals are ineffective. As copper prices continue to rise, downstream processing enterprises have started to shut down. Although there is still some short - term upward space for copper prices, it is limited, and it is difficult for this upward trend to last until the end of the year. In the long run, consumption factors are essential for copper price increases, and copper mine shortages, AI, green energy, and power grid transformation are positive factors for copper prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Monthly Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of copper show different trends in different months from 2024/10 to 2026/3. The total supply ranges from 128 million tons to 145 million tons, and the total consumption ranges from 106 million tons to 149 million tons. The surplus or deficit situation also varies, with the surplus amount ranging from - 21.3 million tons to 24.0 million tons [4]. - The year - on - year changes in total supply, consumption, cumulative production, and cumulative consumption also fluctuate. For example, the year - on - year change in total supply ranges from - 7.25% to 22.48%, and the year - on - year change in consumption ranges from - 21.30% to 24.33% [4]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Project News: On October 18th, the Alatan Daba Molybdenum - Copper Mine project officially started, with a designed production scale of 300,000 tons/year, using the "project - for - resources" EPC + O model [7]. - Production Data: BHP's copper production in the first fiscal quarter was 49,360 tons, a 4% increase, with an average realized price of $4.59 per pound, an 8% year - on - year increase. It maintains its annual copper production forecast at 1.8 - 2 million tons [7]. - Policy and Call: Indonesia may allow the copper concentrate exports of Amman Mineral. Chen Jinghe called for enhancing the global supply guarantee capacity of strategic key minerals [7]. Copper Concentrate/Crude Copper Processing Fees - Recently, the spot TC of copper concentrate has declined, and the overall sentiment is cautious, with light spot trading. The clean copper concentrate spot TC fluctuates around - 40. The domestic trade concentrate market is stable, and the focus is on long - term contract negotiations, which progress slowly due to large differences in psychological expectations [12]. - It is expected that the pricing coefficient will remain high and stable in the short term, with a possibility of a slight increase [12]. Copper Concentrate Port Data - Last week, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from the previous week. Most ports saw inventory declines, especially Qingdao Port and Fangchenggang Port [16]. Smelting Profit - Last week, the TC price slightly declined, but the sulfuric acid price increased, offsetting part of the smelting losses. The profitability of long - term contracts and the loss level of spot contracts both improved. The long - term contract profit was 245 yuan/ton, and the spot contract loss was 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. SHFE Copper Spread Structure - Last week, as copper prices were high, downstream purchasing demand was weak. The spot premium initially fluctuated around par, then turned to a discount as delivery warehouse receipts flowed out and copper prices rose. The discount widened at the end of the week. The overall inventory first increased and then decreased. There is still upward space for copper prices this year, but caution should be exercised in taking profits at high prices [22]. LME Copper Structure Curve - As of October 24th, LME copper inventory was around 13.63 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warehouse receipts slightly increased to about 7.59%. The cash month was at a discount of about $25.97 per ton. Some Chinese export supplies are expected to flow into LME Asian warehouses, with an estimated change of more than 20,000 tons [32]. LME Copper Position and Warehouse Receipt Concentration - The Futures Banding Report shows that the short - term light long positions of copper prices have decreased, and the long - term light positions have decreased by one position. At the same time, the short - term short positions have increased by two positions, the medium - term light short positions have decreased, and the long - term medium - sized short positions have increased by one position. The market sentiment of short - selling at high prices has increased [34]. - The Cash Report and Warrant Banding Report show that the market concentration has increased [35]. SHFE - LME Copper Ratio - Recently, copper prices have been rising, but the SHFE - LME copper ratio has remained low at around 7.98, and the import window loss is still 800 yuan/ton. The ratio has fluctuated greatly recently, and caution should be exercised in ratio operations [37]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - On October 27th, the total copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 116,800 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons from the 20th and 2,000 tons from the 23rd. The bonded area inventory continues to accumulate, but the increase rate has slowed down [41][42]. Scrap Copper Market - Scrap Red Copper: The copper price has been rising, but the overall market trading volume is limited. Upstream traders' inventories are low, and the available spot is scarce. Downstream manufacturers' inventories of finished products and raw materials are high, and the scrap copper purchase volume is small. The high price of scrap copper restricts downstream consumption [45]. - Scrap Yellow Copper: The scrap yellow copper price has slightly increased with the rising copper price. Upstream traders are more active in trading, but due to the tight supply and high price of raw materials, it is difficult to replenish inventory, and the future trading activity may decline. Downstream brass factories' orders have increased slightly, but they are still lower than the same period last year, and most factories are cautious in purchasing [45]. Downstream Enterprises and End - Users - Refined Copper Rod: Most refined copper rod enterprises face sales pressure, with few new orders and slow提货. Some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance to adjust inventory [47]. - Recycled Copper Rod: Most recycled copper rod enterprises maintain stable production, but the high copper price increases the raw material cost, and the weak terminal demand affects the actual output [47]. - Copper Tube: The output of copper tube enterprises has slightly increased due to the delivery of previous orders at the end of the month. However, the overall start - up rate is still low, and the orders are difficult to increase due to the off - season and high copper prices. The demand in the refrigeration sector is lower than expected, and the production plan of air - conditioning enterprises in the fourth quarter has decreased significantly compared with last year [47]. - Copper Foil: The supply of the copper foil market is stable. The supply of electronic circuit copper foil is slightly tight, supported by high copper prices. The demand in the downstream market is stable, and the sales volume has increased. The supply of high - end copper foil is still structurally tight. The supply of lithium - ion copper foil is loose, and the competition is intense. The demand growth in the new energy market has not met expectations, and battery manufacturers' purchasing strategies are cautious [47]. - Copper Plate and Strip: The production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip enterprises is basically the same as last week, and the start - up rate of some enterprises has decreased. The industry's start - up rhythm is slow due to weak terminal consumption, high production costs, and unclear market expectations. The supply of red copper plate and strip has little change, while the supply of yellow copper plate and strip is difficult to increase [47]. Inventory Changes - Global refined copper inventories have changed little recently, but high copper prices have suppressed some consumption. With some Chinese export supplies flowing into LME, the global visible inventory is expected to increase [50]. - Shanghai Region: At the beginning of this week, the Shanghai inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the 20th and an increase of 500 tons from the 23rd. The domestic supplies in the Shanghai market are still arriving, but the import of refined copper is relatively small, and the inventory increase is limited [53]. - Guangdong Region: At the beginning of this week, the Guangdong inventory was 21,900 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the 20th and 200 tons from the 23rd. The arrival of smelter supplies in the Guangdong market is small, and high copper prices have restricted downstream consumption, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory [59]. - Jiangsu (Wuxi) Region: At the beginning of this week, the Jiangsu inventory was 37,100 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the 20th and 1,300 tons from the 23rd [66]. CFTC Position (Lagging) - As of September 23rd, the non - commercial long and short positions accounted for 32% and 18.7% respectively, with the long positions increasing by 0.6 and the short positions increasing by 1%. The market initiative has increased [72]. - The non - commercial net long position was 30,230 contracts, and the COT index was 0.614, indicating that the strength of copper prices has increased [72].