紫金天风期货尿素日报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of urea may remain relatively strong, but after the agricultural demand weakens, the relatively loose fundamentals will still suppress the price. The overall market demand will increase first and then decrease in the short term. The current month - spread is low, and the price of near - month contracts is under significant pressure. The market discusses that the export window may have closed. The agricultural sales drive the urea market in the mainstream areas to develop well, but it is difficult to support continuous strengthening. The inventory accumulation trend may continue after the demand. Although the international price is stable and the export profit is still high, China is restricted by policies and has difficulty participating in the Indian tender. The market discusses that the export quota may be significantly liberalized next year, but the export window may remain closed this year [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - The spot price of urea has rebounded significantly. The end of precipitation in North China has led to the emergence of delayed autumn fertilizer demand, boosting the compound fertilizer start - up rate and causing the spot price to rebound [4][10]. - The price of ammonium chloride has stabilized, and the trading atmosphere is active. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have fast sales supported by agricultural demand, but the start - up rate increases slowly, and the procurement of ammonium chloride is limited. The price of ammonium sulfate has become stagnant again after a recent increase. The price of caprolactam - grade ammonium sulfate has increased significantly, but downstream buyers are still cautious and have a low willingness to purchase at high prices in the short term [13]. Production and Supply - The urea start - up rate has rebounded recently as maintenance gradually resumes. The coal - based profit still exists, and the start - up rate may remain at a relatively high level. Some enterprises resumed production last week, and it is expected that more enterprises will resume this week without new maintenance, so the start - up rate may continue to rise [40][45]. Inventory - The growth rate of enterprise inventory has slowed down this week. Agricultural demand has a significant boost, but the start - up rate has also recovered. With the export window closed, the inventory may still tend to accumulate under the expectation of a loose supply - demand situation. The port inventory has decreased significantly as ports accelerated the departure of goods. The inventories in Qinhuangdao and Huanghua Port (small - particle) increased, while the inventory in Yantai Port decreased significantly [51]. Export - The export volume increased significantly in September, but the export window has now closed. The international price is stable, and the export profit is still very high. India may tender again soon, but China is restricted by policies and has difficulty participating. The market discusses that the export quota may be significantly liberalized next year, but the export window may remain closed this year [31][61]. Domestic Demand - The autumn fertilizer demand, which was delayed due to precipitation in the north, has increased significantly. The sales of autumn fertilizers of compound fertilizer enterprises have increased, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. However, the overall agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the intensity of reserve demand needs to be monitored. The demand for melamine and boards is weak, and the start - up rate remains low [3]. - The price of compound fertilizers may weaken again after the autumn fertilizer application ends. The price of melamine fluctuates within a narrow range. The start - up rate is at a historical low, and the market demand is weak. If the equipment resumes production next week, the supply - demand situation will become looser, and the price may be under pressure [77][91]. Raw Material Prices - The increase in raw material prices has slowed down. The coal production has decreased, and the supply contraction supports the coal price to stabilize and rebound. As the off - season arrives, the coal supply - demand situation has become looser, and the price increase has slowed down. The profit of coal - based urea is still high, and the increase in coal price has not affected the urea start - up rate. The synthetic ammonia market shows mixed price trends in different regions. The production has decreased recently, and the demand has increased slightly, but the downstream purchasing atmosphere is cautious, and the sustainability of agricultural demand growth may be weak [119][130]. Futures Market - The futures price of urea has stabilized, and the month - spread fluctuates. The warehouse receipts will start to be cancelled in October, and a large amount of physical goods from futures - to - cash transactions may form a large supply in the market [135][150]. Balance Sheet - The total supply and demand of urea show different trends in different months from 2025 to 2026. The export volume increased significantly in September 2025, but the export window closed in October, and the export volume may decrease significantly [153][155].