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Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-10-31 06:36
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will be in a volatile state. The price of nickel ore at the raw material end remains high, and with the coming of the rainy season in the Philippines, the shipment volume of nickel ore is hindered, and mines have a strong attitude to hold prices. The fundamentals of pure nickel remain weak, but short - term macro - sentiment may still be priced in, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - The short - term stainless steel market is operating weakly. The downward shift of cost support and the imbalance between supply and demand jointly suppress steel prices. After the "Silver October" peak season, downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand and resist high - priced resources, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 123,050 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.78% increase; the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase; the price of imported nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 122,250 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase [15]. - As of October 27, the LME nickel price increased by 105 dollars/ton to 15,335 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.69% increase; the LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton to - 205.18 dollars/ton [19]. - As of October 27, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 9 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.96% decrease [3][27]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.56 million tons month - on - month, a 1.14% increase, and a 13.07% increase year - on - year [3][49]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly refined nickel export volume was 1.41 million tons, a 6.22% decrease month - on - month, and a 33.21% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 2.84 million tons, a 17.29% increase month - on - month, and a 378.85% increase year - on - year [49]. - As of October 27, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,912 tons to 29,800 tons week - on - week, a 10.84% increase; LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 762 tons to 251,200 tons week - on - week, a 0.30% increase [50]. 3.1.3 Demand - The battery field is the core driver of demand. The penetration of high - nickel battery technology is increasing, and new - energy vehicle manufacturers have stable production, increasing the procurement demand for high - purity nickel sulfate. The electroplating field benefits from the peak season of consumer electronics, driving up the inquiry volume of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate [4]. 3.2 Nickel Ore Market 3.2.1 Price - As of October 27, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore increased by 1 dollar/wet ton to 30, 58, and 79.5 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - As of October 24, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained unchanged at 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained unchanged at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [3][32]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of October 24, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 29 million tons to 10.24 million wet tons week - on - week, a 2.75% decrease [35]. - In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a 3.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 34.43% increase year - on - year. Among them, the import volume from the Philippines was 5.8174 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediate Product Market - As of October 27, the FOB price of MHP increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,184 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,489 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP decreased by 0.08 million tons to 4.07 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.93% decrease; the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 0.53 million tons to 2.26 million tons month - on - month, a 30.64% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 1.905 million tons, a 11.66% increase month - on - month, and a 67.38% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 0.568 million tons, a 236.44% increase month - on - month, and a 65.93% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate production increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.40 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 11.45% increase. The production of domestic nickel sulfate increased, and the operating rate was also adjusted upwards. Recently, some salt plants that had undergone maintenance have restored production capacity, and the production volume has slightly increased due to contract processing orders. However, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the volume of spot sales is limited, and the market supply continues to be in a tight pattern [62]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate import volume was 2.95 million tons, a 2.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 36.24% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 806,420 tons, a 58.96% increase month - on - month, and a 75.81% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.5 Nickel Iron Market 3.5.1 Production - As of September 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.23 million tons to 2.29 million tons month - on - month, a 9.30% decrease. Most domestic nickel iron manufacturers maintain a normal production rhythm, but due to the narrowing profit margin and weak demand, the overall industry operating rate is at a low level [78]. - As of September 2025, the production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia increased by 0.2 million tons to 13.99 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.45% increase [78]. 3.5.2 Import - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel iron import volume was 1.0853 million tons (converted to metal content of 136,400 tons), a 24.16% increase month - on - month, and a 47.19% increase year - on - year. The latest data shows that the import volume of nickel iron from Indonesia has increased significantly, exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [78]. 3.5.3 Profit - As of October 27, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 2.94 yuan/nickel point to 1,002.96 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to - 7.42% [84]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market 3.6.1 Price - Last week, the stainless steel main contract ss2512 opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 12,840 yuan/ton and a low of 12,565 yuan/ton, a 1.43% weekly increase. The futures market showed an upward trend, but the boost to the spot market was limited [87]. 3.6.2 Production - As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, a 0.60% increase month - on - month, and a 4.75% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production plan for the 200 - series was 1.035 million tons, a 1.35% increase month - on - month; the 300 - series was 1.7649 million tons, a 0.12% increase month - on - month; the 400 - series was 0.6293 million tons, a 0.69% increase month - on - month [90]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of October 24, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 13,800 tons to 1.0274 million tons week - on - week, a 1.33% decrease. Among them, the 300 - series inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 649,300 tons week - on - week, a 0.89% decrease [93]. - As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 601 tons to 73,900 tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [93]. 3.6.4 Cost - As of October 28, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 78 yuan/ton to 12,904 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.60% decrease [96].