CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-31 06:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 335.094 billion yuan, down 18.79% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.97 billion yuan, down 41.88% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.32 billion yuan, 6.32 billion yuan, and 7.03 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.4, 12.1, and 10.9 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 633.87 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.0%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 12.9% in 2024 and 17.8% in 2025, before recovering slightly in subsequent years [6][8] - The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated at 8.67 billion yuan, with a decline of 15.6% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to further decline to 6.75 billion yuan in 2024 and 5.32 billion yuan in 2025, before increasing in 2026 and 2027 [6][8] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.33 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.24 yuan in 2024, and then slightly increasing to 0.26 yuan in 2025 [6][8] Order and Market Performance - The company secured new orders worth 760.67 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year. The breakdown of new orders includes 134.66 billion yuan from metallurgical engineering, 284.97 billion yuan from construction, 137.81 billion yuan from infrastructure, and 139.56 billion yuan from industrial manufacturing [7] - The company’s new orders from domestic markets decreased by 16.5%, while overseas orders increased by 10% [7] Cost and Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.00%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin decreased to 1.18%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 19.391 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 11.345 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [7]