Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, as supply - side disruptions and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Supply uncertainty is intensified by Russia's export decline and potential nationalization of European refineries, but the expected increase in UK North Sea production and the actual enforcement of US sanctions are questionable, which may limit the upside. Weak gasoline and diesel shipments on the demand side suppress refinery开工 willingness, and rising interest - rate hike expectations at the macro - level put pressure on oil prices [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 30, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 462.6 yuan per barrel, a slight 0.24% decline from the previous day, with a narrowed intraday fluctuation range, indicating intensified market long - short game. WTI and Brent closed at $60.36 and $64.3 per barrel respectively, down 1.76% and 0.95% from the previous day, continuing the recent weakness. The SC - Brent spread widened to $0.86 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread rose to $4.8 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened to $3.94 per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and consecutive three - contract narrowed from - 4.8 yuan per barrel to - 3.5 yuan per barrel, with a slight relief of near - month contango pressure [2]. b. Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply side: Russian refined oil exports have dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions, which may further compress global refined oil supply. The US sanctions on Rosneft have triggered discussions in Germany about nationalizing its refineries in Germany, which may intensify European energy supply disruptions. BP is exploring new oil and gas resources in Gabon, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax, which may stimulate the recovery of North Sea production and relieve European supply pressure [3]. - Demand side: The news in the fuel oil market has improved, but the demand for gasoline and diesel remains weak, with refinery shipments being dull, reflecting weak terminal consumption. Some countries such as Hungary and India still rely on Russian crude oil, showing demand resilience [3]. - Inventory side: On October 24, excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decline of 1.62%. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%, reaching the highest level since the week of September 30, 2022. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 1.334 million barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 3.362 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and heating oil inventory decreased by 39,000 barrels [4]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, as the supply - side uncertainties and weak demand are in a stalemate [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: On October 30, 2025, SC was at 458.90 yuan per barrel, down 0.80% from the previous day; WTI was at $60.29 per barrel, down 0.12%; Brent was at $64.03 per barrel, down 0.42%. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $65.24 per barrel. Brent spot price was down 0.18% to $65.50 per barrel, while Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri prices all increased, with Oman up 3.54% to $66.95 per barrel. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread decreased by 40.70% to $0.51 per barrel, SC - WTI spread decreased by 11.46% to $4.25 per barrel, Brent - WTI spread decreased by 5.08% to $3.74 per barrel, and SC continuous - consecutive three spread decreased by 22.86% to - 4.30 yuan per barrel. - Other assets: The US dollar index rose 0.40% to 99.52, the S&P 500 dropped 0.99% to 6,822.34 points, the DAX index dropped 0.02% to 24,118.89 points, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.16% to 7.11. - Inventory and开工: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.62% to 415.966 million barrels, Cushing inventory increased by 6.28% to 22.565 million barrels, US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.13% to 409.097 million barrels, API inventory decreased by 0.90% to 443.918 million barrels. The US refinery weekly开工 rate dropped 2.26% to 86.60%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 3.25% to 15.219 million barrels per day [7]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU was at 2,751 yuan per ton, down 1.61%; LU was at 3,255 yuan per ton, up 0.28%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 241.47 cents per gallon, down 0.33%. - Spot prices: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the Russian M100 to - shore price, which dropped 2.27% to $431 per ton. - Paper prices: High - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) both decreased by about 0.12%. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 0.38% to $64.79 per ton, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 12.00% to 504 yuan per ton, the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 0.49% to - 1,821 yuan per ton, and the FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased by 2.58% to - 1,789 yuan per ton. - Platts prices: Platts (380CST) increased by 8.96% to $392.50 per ton, and Platts (180CST) increased by 9.13% to $397.43 per ton. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% to 23.027 million tons, US distillate inventories in different sulfur - content ranges also changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On October 30, Russian refined oil exports dropped to the lowest point since the Russia - Ukraine conflict due to refinery shutdowns and tightened Western sanctions. BP has signed an agreement to explore oil and gas offshore in Gabon. The US sanctions on Rosneft have led to discussions in Germany about nationalizing its business in Germany [9][10]. b. Demand - The crude oil trend has improved slightly, and the news in the fuel oil market has improved, but gasoline and diesel shipments are still weak, with terminal demand being hard to boost, and refinery shipments are dull. The market is expected to remain stable with narrow adjustments [11]. c. Inventory - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore for the week ending October 29 was to be announced [12]. d. Market Information - As of 2:30 on October 31, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.11%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.47%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.24%. Hungary's Prime Minister Orban hopes to get economic stimulus and exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil through a meeting with US President Trump. India is studying the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies. The UK may cancel the North Sea oil and gas windfall tax [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly开工 rate, US refinery crude oil processing volume, US weekly crude oil net imports, Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum)开工 rate, Chinese refined oil monthly production, US commercial crude oil inventory, US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trends, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, Chinese high - low sulfur spreads, cross - regional high - low sulfur spreads, international port IFO380 spot prices, and fuel oil inventory [14][16][18][20][21][23][27][29][33][34][36][40][41][43][47][48][50][54][57][58][59].
美国需求尚可，原油短期或将保持震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-31 07:09