Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol futures may continue to trade in a low-level consolidation pattern in the short term. The narrowing profit margin of coal-based production restricts the elasticity of domestic supply. The divergence between the high load of polyester factories and the low load of weaving machines reflects poor inventory transfer in the industrial chain. If there are no trend fluctuations in crude oil and coal prices, ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants in November and the seasonal inflection point of downstream orders [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped from 4,100 yuan/ton to 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66%. The intraday fluctuation range was 4,069 - 4,109 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China remained stable at 4,180 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 148 yuan/ton (futures at a discount), indicating that the support in the spot market was stronger than that in the futures market [1] - 持仓与成交: The open interest of the main contract declined for four consecutive days to 312,500 lots, and the trading volume also decreased to 139,400 lots. The market trading activity decreased, reflecting a weakening divergence among funds on the short-term direction [1] - 供给端: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.12%. The operating rates of oil-based and coal-based production were maintained at 71.24% and 66.2% respectively. The profit of ethylene-based production processes improved significantly (e.g., the profit of DOW's chemical method rebounded by 129 yuan/ton), while the coal-based profit decreased by 13.4% to 336 yuan/ton. Fluctuations in coal prices at the cost end may suppress the willingness of coal-based plants to increase production in the future [1] - 需求端: The load of polyester factories remained stable at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. The seasonal weakening of terminal orders suppressed the replenishment momentum of the weaving sector, and there were blockages in demand transmission [1] - 库存端: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 56,000 tons to 523,000 tons (a decrease of 9.67%). The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased sharply by 18.4% to 151,000 tons. The decrease in arrivals and the increase in port shipments promoted the reduction of visible inventory, and the short-term inventory pressure was significantly relieved [1] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - 期货与现货价格: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract decreased from 4,100 yuan/ton to 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66%. The spot price in East China decreased from 4,180 yuan/ton to 4,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% [4] - 利润情况: The profits of ethylene-based production processes generally improved, with increases ranging from 14.46% to 39.89%. The coal-based profit decreased by 13.41% to 336 yuan/ton. The profits of natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based production decreased by 1.94% and 8.38% respectively [4] - 产业链开工负荷: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal-based operating rate, oil-based operating rate, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine load remained unchanged. The ethylene-based operating rate decreased by 4.0% to 63.1%, and the methanol-based operating rate remained unchanged [4] - 库存与到港量情况: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 56,000 tons to 523,000 tons, a decrease of 9.67%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 34,000 tons to 151,000 tons, a decrease of 18.38% [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 30, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market was stable in the morning, with near-month cargoes negotiated in the range of 489 - 492 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market moved down, with near-month cargoes negotiated in the range of 486 - 489 US dollars/ton, and transactions were heard within the range [5] - On October 30, the center of the mainstream market remained stable. The quotes of holders in the South China market remained stable, and the market negotiation was average, with the current delivery price around 4,260 yuan/ton [5] - On October 30, international oil prices rebounded, providing some support at the cost end. The fundamental pattern of ethylene glycol changed little, but the macro atmosphere improved slightly. The center of the ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the current negotiation price in East China around 4,160 yuan/ton [5] - On October 30, the spot quotes in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the average market price around 3,790 yuan/ton for self-pickup. The supply of coal-based products was tight, and downstream players' purchases were stable, so the quotes of Shaanxi products remained stable [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]
乙二醇上行驱动不足，延续震荡格局
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-31 07:05