铝及氧化铝11月月报：氧化铝存减产预期，宏微观推动铝价走强-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are under pressure due to supply - demand surplus, with potential production cuts in November. If production cuts occur, prices may rebound; otherwise, they will remain under pressure. Overall, the price trend is to sell on rebounds next year [3][99] - The shortage of global electrolytic aluminum is more prominent overseas. Macro - and micro - factors will drive the upward trend of aluminum prices to continue. In November, domestic demand may support prices, and the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow [4][103] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface Summary - Alumina: Due to supply - demand surplus, prices are falling. The November spot long - term settlement price may approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity, leading to potential production cuts. If production cuts reduce the surplus, prices may rebound to around 3000 yuan/ton; otherwise, they will be under pressure. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The global shortage is mainly overseas. With overseas production cuts and improving domestic demand, aluminum prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (alumina oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan, aluminum oscillating strongly between 21000 - 21800 yuan), arbitrage (long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum), and option trading (wait - and - see) [4] 2. Alumina Low - price Pressure on Cash Cost and November Supply - side Production Cut Expectations - Raw Material End: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with stable prices but few transactions. Imported bauxite prices are theoretically under pressure, but spot transactions are scarce. The price of Guinea bauxite is around 72 - 73 dollars/dry ton. In September 2025, China imported 1588 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.5% [7][10][11] - Alumina Price and Production: As of late October, the national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, and the operating capacity was 9765 million tons. In October, the domestic alumina supply - demand surplus was 33 million tons (considering downstream inventory) or 17 million tons (based on social inventory). The average full cost of alumina in September was 2863 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 179 yuan/ton. In November, pay attention to production cuts due to high - cost capacity approaching cash cost and the impact of heavy - pollution weather [22][23][36] - Import and Export: In September 2025, China exported 24.6 million tons of alumina (a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 82.3%) and imported 6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 61.7%). The net export was 18.6 million tons [31] 3. Macro - and Micro - Factors Driving the Rise of Aluminum Prices - Macro Factors: In October, the overseas macro - market sentiment was first depressed and then improved. The expected further reaching of tariff agreements between the US and other countries and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation will support LME aluminum prices, but the US government shutdown may bring uncertainty [41][46] - Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Changes: - Overseas: There are both increases and decreases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some projects are in the process of being put into production, while some factories have reduced production due to accidents or power - supply issues. For example, the Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant reduced production by about 21 million tons, and the Mozambique plant may reduce production by 37 million tons in March 2026 [51][52] - Domestic: As of late October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4523.2 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4441.4 million tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is ongoing. In September, the average full cost of electrolytic aluminum was 15977 yuan/ton. In September, the import of aluminum ingots was 24.68 million tons, and the export was 2.9 million tons [61][62][63] - Inventory and Consumption: - Domestic: At the end of October, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was 91.13 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will decline in November - December, and low inventory will support prices. The export profit of aluminum products is increasing, and consumption is expected to be resilient [66] - Overseas: The LME inventory is stable, and the spot is mostly at a premium. The global shortage of aluminum is more prominent overseas, and low inventory supports LME aluminum prices [69] - Domestic Terminal Consumption: - New Energy Demand: The production of photovoltaic modules is still relatively low year - on - year, with limited impact on aluminum demand. The use of aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year - on - year, and the use of aluminum in the power sector is also growing. The State Grid's investment in 2025 will exceed 650 billion yuan, and the sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods has increased [73][76][79] - Traditional Industries: The demand for aluminum in the real - estate industry is still weak, and the production of household appliances in November is expected to decline year - on - year. In September, the export of aluminum products was 87.01 million tons, and the impact of tariffs on international trade is gradually weakening [81][91][94] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: Low prices are pressuring high - cost capacity. In November, there are expectations of production cuts. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. The cost in November can refer to that in September - October [99] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Macro - and micro - factors will drive the rise of aluminum prices. Overseas supply shortages will support prices, and domestic demand is resilient. In November, the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow, and the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [103]