奥浦迈（688293）：增长延续，CDMO业务有波动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][7][11] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 0.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.80%, and a net profit of 0.12 billion yuan, up 283.59% year-on-year [4] - The CDMO service business experienced a slight decline in revenue, impacted by external conditions and fluctuating customer demand, while the cell culture product business saw significant growth [7] - The number of participating pipelines continues to grow, with 311 pipelines as of Q3, including 34 in Phase 3 clinical trials and 13 commercial projects [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to net profits of 0.81 billion, 1.18 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a high certainty of performance growth [7] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue of 2.72 billion yuan, a 25.79% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.49 billion yuan, up 81.48% year-on-year [4] - The projected revenue for the upcoming years is as follows: 2024A: 2.97 billion yuan, 2025E: 3.74 billion yuan, 2026E: 4.77 billion yuan, and 2027E: 6.06 billion yuan [6] - The net profit projections for the same years are: 2024A: 0.21 billion yuan, 2025E: 0.81 billion yuan, 2026E: 1.18 billion yuan, and 2027E: 1.66 billion yuan [6][9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 53.0% in 2024A to 59.3% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.1% to 27.3% over the same period [9] Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 1.0% in 2024A to 6.7% in 2027E [9] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to remain low, around 7.6% in 2025E [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 312.0 in 2024A to 39.6 in 2027E, indicating improving valuation [9]