造纸板块研发报告

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the pulp market had a pattern of strong supply and weak demand for softwood pulp, with high inventory and slow de - stocking suppressing the rebound. The double - offset paper was in the off - season, and it was difficult to implement price increases. The pulp market's "structural increment" was still concentrated in hardwood pulp [4][5]. - For the pulp market in November, the upper limit was suppressed by high inventory and old warehouse receipts, while the lower limit was supported by the foreign market quotation and the price increase of white cardboard. For double - offset paper, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction still relied on paper mills' active production cuts [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Paper Pulp Market Review - In October, the domestic spot pulp price showed a pattern of "differentiated oscillations, weak softwood and stable hardwood". Softwood pulp led the decline due to high port inventory, weak demand, and financial market pressure. Hardwood pulp rose slightly supported by foreign market price increases and tight immediate supply. Unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed sideways movements, and domestic chemimechanical pulp rose rapidly in the second half of the month due to wood chip shortages, while non - wood pulp fluctuated slightly with wood pulp [10]. - The pulp futures 01 contract in October showed a "first - down - then - up" oscillating trend. Influenced by factors such as factory shutdowns, paper mill price increases, and exchange rate changes, the closing price at the end of the month increased by about 1.5% compared to the beginning of the month, and the daily average amplitude of the main contract was about 1.2% [15][17]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply - Import: In September, China's paper pulp imports reached 295.2 million tons, a historical peak for the same period. The forecast for October arrivals remained at around 3 million tons. It was expected that the annual imports would exceed 36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [21]. - Domestic Production: In October, domestic paper pulp production was 2.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4%. It was expected that the annual production would reach 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4% [21][22]. - Inventory: As of October 23, the sample inventory of mainstream ports was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. If the November imports decreased as expected, the inventory was expected to continue to decline slightly, but it was difficult to fall below the critical level of 1.9 million tons [23][24]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand - Cultural Paper: In October, the apparent consumption of cultural paper decreased, and the demand for pulp continued to decline. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would decrease by about 5% [27]. - Packaging Paper: In October, the consumption of hardwood pulp in packaging paper increased rapidly. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by 8 - 10% [27][28][29]. - Household Paper: In October, household paper maintained high - level production and sales. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by about 6% [30][31]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - Double - Offset Paper: In October, the average market price of double - offset paper was 4,643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, there was still a risk of price decline [32]. - Coated Paper: In October, the average price of coated paper was 4,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. In November, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels [32][34]. 5. Cultural Paper Price Analysis - Production: In October, the production of double - offset paper was 890,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.3%. The production of coated paper was 353,000 tons, with a utilization rate of 58.8%. In November, the planned production of both was expected to increase slightly [36][37]. - Inventory: At the end of October, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The inventory of coated paper was 371,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. If the price increase letters were not implemented in November, the inventory would continue to rise [38]. - Profit: In October, the losses of double - offset paper and coated paper expanded. In November, although paper mills issued price increase letters, it was difficult to reverse the loss situation [39]. - Cost: In October, the cost of wood pulp and energy increased, squeezing the profit space of paper mills. In November, there was still upward pressure on costs [40]. - Import and Export: In September, the imports and exports of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. In October, the export volume was expected to remain low [40][41]. - Downstream Demand: In October, the demand for cultural paper was weak. In November, the spring textbook tender volume was expected to decline, and the demand was difficult to provide upward momentum [42]. 6. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Paper Pulp Fundamental Analysis: In November, attention should be paid to the port de - stocking speed. If the inventory fell below 1.9 million tons, the basis would converge, and the futures price would rise; otherwise, the near - low - far - high reverse spread would be maintained [46]. - Paper Pulp Futures Strategy: For single - side trading, short the SP2511 contract on rallies and long the SP2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, mainly use the 12 - 1 reverse spread idea. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [47][49]. - Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis: In November, the supply and demand of double - offset paper remained loose, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction relied on paper mills' active production cuts [50]. - Double - Offset Paper Strategy: For single - side trading, short the OP2601 contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [51][54].