Xinda Securities·2025-10-31 07:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has a strong risk resistance capability across its entire industry chain despite a decline in oil prices, with a notable performance in the natural gas sales segment [4][7] - The company reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year, with total revenue of 2,169.256 billion yuan, down 3.86%, and net profit of 126.294 billion yuan, down 4.70% [1][2] - The average Brent oil price for the first three quarters of 2025 was $70 per barrel, a 15% decrease year-on-year, indicating a challenging market environment [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 719.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.18% [2] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 42.287 billion yuan, down 3.70% year-on-year but up 13.72% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 was 0.23 yuan, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year but an increase of 15.00% quarter-on-quarter [2] Segment Performance - The oil and gas exploration and development segment faced challenges due to declining oil prices, while the refining segment showed signs of recovery [4] - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1,377.2 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [4] - The natural gas sales segment saw a significant increase, with sales reaching 2,185.41 billion cubic meters, up 4.2% year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 167.53 billion yuan, 176.19 billion yuan, and 182.40 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.92, 0.96, and 1.00 yuan [7] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to recover performance through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7]