2025年10月美联储议息会议点评

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4% as expected[3] - The voting showed increased division among committee members, with one member supporting a 50 basis point cut and another opposing any cut[3] - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction starting December 1, 2025, after continuing to reduce by $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in MBS in October and November[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index rose, while the S&P 500 and COMEX gold prices fell sharply following the announcement[2] - Powell indicated that the current interest rate is near the neutral rate, estimated between 3%-4%[3] - Recent economic data suggests that U.S. economic activity may be slightly better than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending[5] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Concerns - Powell noted that inflation remains a concern, with the latest CPI data showing slightly softer inflation than expected[5] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, but Powell emphasized that employment risks are skewed to the downside[5] - The Fed is cautious about potential persistent inflation and the impact of tariffs on prices[5] Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Following the October meeting, the probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 91% to 68% according to CME FedWatch[5] - The Fed may not continue to lower rates due to ongoing inflation pressures and the current policy rate being closer to neutral[5] - Powell's comments suggest that the pace of future rate cuts may change, reflecting differing views within the committee[5]