预期落地阶段，价格震荡走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's sensitivity to the policy - led "anti - involution" in the glass and soda ash industries has declined marginally, and the market is observing the implementation strength. There is intensified competition between the bulls and bears regarding the weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to first fall and then rise in November, with a slight downward shift in the price range [2][5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, under the background of global liquidity easing and clear anti - involution policies, the structural market will continue. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the accumulation of industrial contradiction risks due to the lack of improvement in the fundamentals [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the futures price of the main soda ash contract first fell and then rose. The overseas situation and domestic macro - data affected the market sentiment. The price range moved down. In terms of spreads, the SA2601 - 05 spread showed a positive arbitrage trend, and the FG01 - SA01 spread showed a downward trend. The spot prices of soda ash manufacturers were generally stable, with some regional price adjustments [8]. 3.1.2 "Anti - involution" Policy Impact - The market's sensitivity to the "anti - involution" policy has declined, and it is observing the implementation strength. Overseas, the risk appetite has decreased significantly after the Sino - US talks. The competition between the bulls and bears on the weak reality and strong expectations has intensified [12]. 3.1.3 Production and Inventory - In October, the monthly soda ash production was about 3.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to October, the national soda ash production was about 31.592 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 670,000 tons, or 2.2%. After the holiday in October, the inventory pressure increased, and the inventory of manufacturers increased by about 1.02 million tons to 1.702 million tons [2][19]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass was stable at 161,000 tons. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 100 tons to 88,680 tons. The overall demand for photovoltaic glass was weak, and the new orders were limited. The demand for light soda ash showed a natural growth trend, with an average monthly apparent demand of about 1.75 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 1% [2][26][31]. 3.1.5 Export and Import - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the soda ash export has increased, and it is expected to maintain a monthly average of over 160,000 tons in 2025. In September 2025, the export volume was 188,000 tons. The import volume was almost zero [37]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Prices and Costs - The price of动力煤 increased, the ammonium chloride market was stable at a low level, and the coke market price was strong. The theoretical profit of the soda ash joint - alkali method (double - ton) was - 165 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [41][43]. 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - In October, the futures price of the main glass contract FG2601 first fell and then rose, leading the decline in the commodity market. The price fluctuation range widened, and the operating range moved down significantly. The spot prices of glass manufacturers decreased after the holiday [50]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of the end of the month, the daily melting volume of float glass was 161,000 tons, unchanged from the beginning of the month. One production line was restarted and ignited in October, and there was no cold - repair of production lines. The supply of glass was basically stable, and the future coal - to - gas conversion in the glass factories in Shahe was still uncertain [52]. 3.2.3 Demand - In October, the glass market was weak in the peak season. The consumption of float glass decreased, and the supply - demand gap turned positive. The downstream processing enterprises' orders were not as good as those in September, and the payment collection was poor. The high inventory in the industry was difficult to digest, which would still suppress the price [61]. 3.2.4 Real Estate Situation - In 2025, the real estate completion was still under pressure. The new construction scale continued to decline, and the completion scale also showed a downward trend, although the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed [65]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - The cost of float glass decreased. The price of petroleum coke increased, and the price of soda ash first fell and then rose. The weekly average profits of float glass with different fuels all decreased [68][69].