2025年10月PMI数据点评：10月PMI：转跌的微妙信号

Group 1: PMI Overview - In October 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The October PMI marks a break from two consecutive months of increases, reaching its lowest point for the year[4] - Historically, October PMI tends to weaken seasonally, with only 2016 and 2024 being exceptions due to specific economic reforms and policies[4] Group 2: Structural Issues - The decline in October's manufacturing PMI reflects structural contradictions in the economy, with the production index falling more than the demand index, indicating a need for improved business confidence[4] - The PMI new orders index decreased, and the PMI import index fell to 46.8%, suggesting that domestic market demand has not fully recovered[4] - The PMI new export orders index dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, highlighting a marginal contraction in external demand due to global economic uncertainties[4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI and services PMI recorded 49.1% and 50.2% respectively, with slight declines in construction and minimal growth in services, indicating ongoing pressures in the non-manufacturing sector[5] - The construction PMI's decline suggests continued downward pressure in infrastructure and real estate, necessitating close monitoring of new policy financial tools[5] - While achieving a growth target of around 5% for the year remains feasible, attention must be paid to the continuity of policies in the fourth quarter[5] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and significant fluctuations in exports[5]