银河期货铜10月报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The long - term upward logic of copper remains unchanged despite the transformation of new and old driving forces. Although the supply is tight and the traditional consumption growth rate has declined, the growth of new consumption areas such as energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles, and future AI will offset the negative impact of the decline in traditional consumption [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Copper Market Overview 3.1.1 Market Review In October, copper prices entered an accelerated upward phase, with the lowest price on October 10 reaching $10,374 per ton for LME copper or 82,630 yuan per ton for SHFE copper, and the highest reaching the historical high pressure level of $11,094 per ton for LME copper or 88,700 yuan per ton for SHFE copper. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff statement had limited impact. Fundamentally, the tightness of copper mines intensified, and domestic production declined. Consumption was weak, and downstream acceptance of high prices was low [5][11][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook In terms of supply, the incremental supply of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, lower than 2024. The overall supply of copper mines is more tense, and the global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. The consumption growth rate is expected to drop to 3.4%. In terms of price, the long - term loose monetary policy in the US is positive, and the support level is 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton, with a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton [13][14]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation Unilateral: Adopt the idea of buying on dips, with a support level of 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton and a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton. Arbitrage: If the export window opens, exit the positive spread temporarily and re - enter later. Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Sino - US Relations Eased, and the Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts Strengthened On October 10, Trump's tariff statement had limited impact, and Sino - US relations later eased. On October 29, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the probability of a December rate cut dropped. The US employment data was weak, and the CPI was relatively stable. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, but consumer growth was weak [23]. 3.3 Copper Mine Disturbances Increased, and the Tight Supply Situation was Difficult to Alleviate 3.3.1 Sharp Drop in the Incremental Supply of Copper Concentrates In 2025, the global incremental supply of copper concentrates is expected to be about 50,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.22%. The supply - side disturbances increased, and the processing fee is likely to be less than or equal to $0 per ton. Some major mining companies reduced their production plans, while the import volume of copper concentrates in China increased [34][35][36]. 3.3.2 Decline in the Start - up of Recycling Processing Enterprises, and the Tight Supply of Scrap Copper was Temporarily Alleviated The global supply of scrap copper did not decrease, but the trade flow changed. The import volume of scrap copper in China was relatively stable, but the growth rate was lower than last year. The tax - refund policy affected the start - up of recycling copper rod enterprises. The import volume of anode copper decreased, while the import volume of scrap copper ingots increased [44][45][47]. 3.3.3 Accelerated Transmission of Raw Material Supply Shortage to the Smelting End The global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. Overseas smelters cut production, and domestic production also declined due to factors such as maintenance and anode plate shortage. The import of refined copper in China increased in September, but the inflow speed may slow down [50][51][53]. 3.4 Consumption Analysis 3.4.1 Obvious Decline in the Growth Rate of Traditional Consumption - Real Estate Market: From January to September, the sales area and completion area of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The consumption of electrolytic copper was still dragged down. It is estimated that the copper consumption will decrease by 123,700 tons to 1,113,700 tons [61][62]. - Power Grid and Power Projects: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the investment in power projects increased by 0.6%. High copper prices inhibited the procurement of downstream enterprises, and the export of copper cables may decline in October [67][68]. - Home Appliances: The production schedule of household air - conditioners in November decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the annual consumption growth rate of air - conditioners will drop to 5%, and the copper consumption of white goods will increase from 2,168,300 tons to 2,267,800 tons [78][81]. 3.4.2 Resilience of Automobile Consumption - Domestic Automobile Consumption: In September, domestic automobile production and sales increased significantly. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be driven by the policy of resuming the purchase tax in 2026 [86][88]. - New Energy Vehicle Consumption in Europe and the US: From January to August, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.46% year - on - year. In the US and Europe, new energy vehicle sales also showed growth trends. It is estimated that the global new energy vehicle copper consumption will increase from 1,220,800 tons in 2024 to 1,401,100 tons in 2025 [95][96]. 3.4.3 Unexpected Growth of Wind and Solar Power Generation - Photovoltaic Installation: From January to September, China's new photovoltaic installation capacity increased by 49.34% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the annual new installation capacity forecast. It is estimated that the global new photovoltaic installation capacity will reach 630GW in 2025 [104][108]. - Wind Power Installation: From January to September, China's new wind power installation capacity increased by 56.16% year - on - year. It is predicted that China's new wind power installation will reach 105 - 115GW in 2025, and the global new wind power installation capacity will increase to 138GW [119]. 3.4.4 Explosive Growth of Lithium - Ion Copper Foil In 2024, the global copper foil production capacity was 2,544,000 tons. From January to September 2025, China's lithium - ion copper foil production was 624,300 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 38%. If calculated according to a 35% consumption growth rate, the annual production will reach 853,800 tons, driving domestic consumption by 1.38% [126]. 3.4.5 Consumption Summary It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand weakens marginally. Processing enterprises and downstream raw material inventories are low, and there will be restocking demand if prices decline [131]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In 2025, the growth of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, and the refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons. The consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. The supply gap of copper concentrates is expected to expand to 680,000 tons, and the refined copper is expected to have a surplus of 376,000 tons, mainly in the US. Domestically, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline from October to December [135][136].