Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-31 08:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 719.2 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 42.3 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.7%, exceeding market expectations despite a slight increase in oil prices [1] - The upstream operating profit remained stable, with crude oil production increasing by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, while natural gas production decreased by 2.2% [2] - The refining segment saw a decrease in operating profit by 5 billion yuan, attributed to a 3% decline in crude processing volume and a 3% drop in refined oil production [3] - The marketing segment's profit increased significantly, with refined oil sales volume rising by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, leading to an operating profit of 5.9 billion yuan, up by 51 billion yuan [4] - The natural gas sales segment experienced profit growth driven by increased sales volume and reduced costs, achieving an operating profit of 12.7 billion yuan, up by 7.5 billion yuan [5] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 150.9 billion, 169.2 billion, and 174.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 9.8, and 9.6 for A-shares, and 8.1, 7.2, and 7.0 for H-shares [5] - The projected dividend yield for A-shares is 4.7% and for H-shares is 6.4% based on a 52% dividend payout ratio [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected at 3,011,012 million yuan, with a growth rate of -5.54% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 150,854.99 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.39% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.82 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 11.03 [6]