Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-31 08:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 showed improvements in coal production and pricing, leading to better financial results despite a year-on-year decline in net profit [1][5]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in coal production and pricing, suggesting that the company's earnings may rebound due to these factors [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 104.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.12 billion yuan, down 39.2% year-on-year [1]. - The coal production and sales figures for Q1-Q3 2025 were 110.82 million tons and 98.04 million tons respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and 1.9% [2]. - The average selling price for self-produced coal was 527 yuan per ton, down 20.5% year-on-year, while the cost was 357 yuan per ton, down 5% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40.9% [2]. Coal Chemical and Power Business Summary - The coal chemical segment saw production and sales of 7.35 million tons and 6.44 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% and 8.7% [4]. - The power generation segment reported a total generation and sales of 57 billion kWh and 46 billion kWh, down 5.1% and 10.8% year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 9.94 billion yuan, 10.90 billion yuan, and 11.97 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.1% in 2025 but growth in subsequent years [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.99 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.19 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.9, 13.6, and 12.4 [5][6].