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百洋医药(301015):2025 年三季报点评:业绩改善明显,ZAP-X国产在即

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.60 CNY, based on a 20x PE for 2026 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in performance, with Q3 2025 showing a net profit of 3.1 billion CNY, a 301.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The core business of brand operation generated revenue of 41.0 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly flat year-on-year, while wholesale and retail segments experienced declines [10]. - The launch of the new product "Dijiao Sujie" is expected to drive growth, targeting middle-aged and elderly consumers with improved bioavailability [10]. - The commercialization of ZAP-X is progressing well, with the first precision radiotherapy center signed in Beijing, and a manufacturing base set to be operational by the end of 2025 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 8,256 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, while 2025 is expected to see revenue of 8,625 million CNY, reflecting a 6.6% increase [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 477 million CNY in 2025, down 31.0% from 2024 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 33.3% in 2023 to 36.3% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to decrease from 8.6% in 2023 to 5.5% in 2025 [5][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 27.4% in 2023 to 19.8% in 2025 [5][11].