国信期货纸浆周报：震荡运行，关注需求恢复情况-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2601 rebounded and then declined, maintaining a low - level volatile pattern. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize. The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and then consider a long - position approach [7][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2601 rebounded and then declined, maintaining a low - level volatile pattern [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Pulp Market Price: As of October 30, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,503 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from last week, with the decline rate expanding by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,239 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from last week, with the decline rate expanding by 0.05 percentage points [12] - January - September Pulp Cumulative Import Volume Increase: In September 2025, China imported 2.952 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7203 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.76 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to September increased by 5.6% and - 0.7% respectively compared to the same period last year [17] - Port Inventory Situation: As of October 30, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 1.9414 million tons, down 0.85% from last week, changing from an increase to a decrease [21] - September European Wood Pulp Consumption and Inventory Statistics: In September 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month and 0.49% compared to September 2024. Except for the flat inventory in Spanish ports, the inventories in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, and Italy decreased by 1.36%, 2.17%, 6.87%, and 9.55% respectively month - on - month [25] - SHFE Pulp Inventory: Not summarized due to lack of effective text information - Downstream Pulp Variety Operating Rates: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. As of October 30, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 1.81 percentage points from last week, that of double - offset paper increased by 0.16 percentage points, that of white cardboard decreased by 1.39 percentage points, and that of household paper decreased by 0.97 percentage points. The operating load rates of downstream base papers showed a differentiated trend, with limited acceptance of high prices, dragging down the rise of pulp prices [30] 3.3 Future Outlook - As of October 30, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports decreased by 0.85% from last week, changing from an increase to a decrease. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 increased by 5.6% compared to last year, and the import value decreased by 0.7%. In September 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month and 0.49% compared to September 2024. Although the external quotation has increased and there is a certain sentiment of hoarding and price - holding among industry players, the profit level of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, dragging down the rise of pulp prices. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize. The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and then consider a long - position approach [35]