聚酯链日报：PTA&PX承压于高库存，聚酯分化格局抑制反弹-20251031

Report Title - PTA&PX承压于高库存，聚酯分化格局抑制反弹 [1] Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA and PX are pressured by high inventories, and the differentiated pattern of polyester restrains the rebound. The supply pressure of PX and PTA is increasing, while the demand is weak, and the inventory of PTA is accumulating, which may lead to the continued weakening of their prices. The polyester industry shows a differentiated pattern, with low inventory of filament supporting price resilience and high inventory of staple fiber having回调 pressure [1][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - PTA&PX: On October 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,588.0 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -103.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,570.0 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -10.0 yuan/ton. The cost support of PX is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing, the demand for PTA is lack of elasticity, and the inventory is accumulating [2][3] - Polyester: On October 30, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,268.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 97.0 yuan/ton. The terminal textile demand is weakening, the inventory of polyester filament is significantly lower than the average level in the past five years, while the inventory of polyester staple fiber is higher than the average level in the past five years. It is expected that the industrial chain will maintain the cost-driven logic in the short term, but the decline in demand may limit the increase of PTA, the low inventory of filament may support price resilience, and the high inventory of staple fiber may have回调 pressure [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.96%, the trading volume increased by 5.96%, and the open interest increased by 1.54%. The spot price of PX in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 0.13%. The basis of PX increased by 48.76% [5] - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 1.42%, the trading volume increased by 28.41%, and the open interest increased by 0.40%. The spot price of PTA in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged. The basis of PTA increased by 89.58%, the 1-5 spread decreased by 15.38%, the 5-9 spread decreased by 22.22%, and the 9-1 spread increased by 17.14%. The import profit of PTA increased by 2.40% [5] - Short Fiber: The main contract price of short fiber futures decreased by 1.02%, the trading volume increased by 16.07%, and the open interest decreased by 8.18%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.08%. The basis of PF increased by 60.82%, the 1-5 spread decreased by 600.00%, the 5-9 spread remained unchanged, and the 9-1 spread increased by 50.00% [5] - Other Products: The price of the Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.42%, the price of the WTI crude oil main contract decreased by 0.12%, the price of CFR Japanese naphtha increased by 0.26%, the price of ethylene glycol remained unchanged, the price of polyester chips remained unchanged, the price of polyester bottle chips decreased by 0.35%, the price of polyester POY remained unchanged, the price of polyester DTY remained unchanged, and the price of polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - Processing Spreads: The processing spread of naphtha increased by 3.13%, the processing spread of PX decreased by 0.61%, the processing spread of PTA increased by 14.20%, the processing spread of polyester chips decreased by 17.64%, the processing spread of polyester bottle chips decreased by 11.18%, the processing spread of polyester short fiber decreased by 35.59%, the processing spread of polyester POY decreased by 18.60%, the processing spread of polyester DTY decreased by 9.94%, and the processing spread of polyester FDY decreased by 4.60% [6] - Light Textile City Trading Volume: The total trading volume of the Light Textile City increased by 9.60%, the trading volume of long fiber fabrics increased by 10.00%, and the trading volume of short fiber fabrics increased by 8.72% [6] - Industrial Chain Load Rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [6] - Inventory Days: The inventory days of polyester short fiber increased by 0.97%, the inventory days of polyester POY decreased by 27.97%, the inventory days of polyester FDY decreased by 16.44%, and the inventory days of polyester DTY decreased by 16.95% [6] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - Macroeconomic Dynamics: On October 30, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and hinted at a pause in rate cuts. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ended the balance sheet reduction on December 1, and there were serious differences among officials regarding the December policy. Middle Eastern Gulf countries collectively announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. On October 29, Citibank lowered the short-term price targets for gold and silver. Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was either incompetent or bad and would leave his position in "a few months" [7] - Supply and Demand - Demand: On October 29, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 708.0 million meters, a month-on-month decrease of 3.01%, with a trading volume of 560.0 million meters for long fiber fabrics and 149.0 million meters for short fiber fabrics [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts on PX and PTA futures, spot prices, basis, processing spreads, industrial chain load rates, inventory days, and Light Textile City trading volumes [9][11][13][15][17][19][22][23][27][28][30] 3.5 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - Supply-side: PX and PTA may face increased supply pressure, and the decline in crude oil prices reduces costs. Demand-side: Affected by downstream polyester and terminal textiles, demand is weak. Inventory-side: PTA factory inventories are accumulating. These factors may lead to the continued weakening of PX and PTA prices [35][36]