Western Securities·2025-10-31 08:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2340.5 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 173.7 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year [1][6] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 775.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, and a net profit of 53.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.7% increase year-on-year [1][6] - Domestic sales showed strong resilience with a Q3 year-on-year growth of 10.8%, particularly in the Casarte and Leader brands, which grew by 18% and 25% respectively [1] - The company is experiencing significant improvements in profitability, with a Q3 gross margin increase of 0.1 percentage points, benefiting from ongoing AI digital transformation [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, domestic sales increased by 10.8%, with air conditioning sales growing by 31% and market share for refrigerators and washing machines increasing by 3.1 and 1.4 percentage points respectively [1] - International sales also grew, with emerging markets showing high growth rates: South Asia +25%, Southeast Asia +15%, and Middle East & Africa +60% [1] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 212.2 billion, 239.2 billion, and 267.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 12.7%, and 11.9% [3] Valuation and Estimates - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 11.4, 10.1, and 9.0 respectively, indicating that the current valuation is at a historically low level [3] - The company is expected to benefit from potential dividend increases and improvements in overseas demand, which are seen as catalysts for upward price elasticity [3] Operational Efficiency - The company has been optimizing its sales and management expenses, achieving a net profit margin of 6.9% in Q3, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The direct-to-consumer order ratio has significantly improved, enhancing user engagement and conversion rates, which is beneficial for long-term market share growth [2]