瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market weakened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2170 - 2270 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2180 - 2260 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market continued to decline, with the price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 2010 - 2040 yuan/ton. Due to squeezed downstream profits, high supply, and high inventory, enterprises mainly reduced prices to attract orders [7]. - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output from restored production. Although the enterprise shipment rhythm is okay, the inventory of some enterprises has increased significantly due to the suspension of individual MTO long - term contracts. The port methanol inventory has a narrow fluctuation, and it is expected to accumulate next week as the demand has not improved significantly. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week but is expected to increase next week [7]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Port methanol prices weakened, and inland prices continued to fall. Enterprises cut prices to attract orders due to high supply, high inventory, and squeezed downstream profits [7]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased, enterprise inventory increased, port inventory may accumulate, and the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate is expected to rise [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a - 4.05% change in the main contract price [10]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of October 31, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 80 [15]. - Position Analysis: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - Warehouse Receipts: As of October 30, there were 11,997 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 2095 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Prices: As of October 30, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Foreign Spot Prices: As of October 30, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 257 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week [34]. - Basis: As of October 30, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of October 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.72 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [43]. - Industry: As of October 30, China's methanol production was 1,968,095 tons, an increase of 24,630 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 376,100 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.36%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 215,600 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. The total Chinese methanol port inventory was 1.5065 million tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of October 30, the methanol import profit was - 31.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.67 yuan/ton from last week [47][52][55]. - Downstream: As of October 30, the domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. As of October 31, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 750 yuan/ton, an increase of 204 yuan/ton from last week [58][61]. 3.5 Options Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content