HTSC·2025-10-31 08:49Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue reached 27.017 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.25% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 12.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.148 billion RMB, up 68.24% year-over-year but down 35.58% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The decline in Q3 performance is attributed mainly to cost fluctuations and non-fair value changes, with a net loss of 625 million RMB from fair value changes [2]. - The company is recognized as a leading player in the gold sector, with significant resource advantages and growth potential, holding a gold metal reserve of 2,635.84 tons as of the end of 2024 [3]. - Despite a short-term decline in gold prices, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, suggesting that the recent price drop may present an opportunity for accumulation once stability is achieved [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 83.783 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 25.04%, and a net profit of 3.956 billion RMB, up 91.51% year-over-year [1]. - The company's self-produced gold output for Q1-Q3 was 37.8 tons, with a year-over-year increase of 6.64% [2]. Growth Potential - The company is actively developing world-class gold production bases in the Jiaodong region, with projects expected to significantly increase annual gold production [3]. Price and Valuation - The report projects a downward adjustment in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 6.338 billion RMB, 9.360 billion RMB, and 12.360 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 61.19% [5]. - The target price for the company's A/H shares is set at 38.52 RMB and 35.02 HKD, based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.53 for 2026 [5].