HTSC·2025-10-31 08:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 17.815 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35%, driven by strong equity investment performance and significant growth in insurance service performance [1] - The annualized total investment return for the first three quarters was 5.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating profit after tax (OPAT) for Q3 increased by 8.2% year-on-year, showing an improvement from the first half of the year [1][4] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance increased by 29.4% year-on-year in Q3, indicating robust growth, while the combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved to 97.6%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The NBV for life insurance showed a year-on-year increase of 29.4% in Q3, slightly down from 32.3% in the first half of 2025. New single premiums decreased by 3.7%, but the NBV profit margin improved by approximately 7.2 percentage points [2] - The agent channel saw a 13.5% year-on-year growth in new single premiums, indicating a recovery from previous declines. The company expects a 32% year-on-year growth in NBV for 2025 [2] Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, primarily due to the company's strategic reduction of high COR businesses. The COR for the first three quarters was 97.6%, reflecting improved underwriting performance [3] - The company anticipates a COR of 97.7% for 2025, with expectations of further improvements following the implementation of a new non-auto insurance policy [3] Investment Performance - The report highlights a significant increase in investment performance, with insurance service performance rising by 54% year-on-year and investment performance increasing by 84% year-on-year in Q3 [4] - The non-annualized net investment return for the first three quarters was 2.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the total investment return was 5.2%, reflecting favorable equity investments [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 5.50, RMB 5.64, and RMB 6.20 respectively, reflecting increases of 13%, 14%, and 15% [5] - The target price remains unchanged at RMB 47 for A-shares and HKD 42 for H-shares, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation methods [5]