中美贸易风险可控，煤焦供需偏紧，多单持有

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal is bullish, and for coke is also bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade risk is controllable, and the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are tight. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Summary by Directory Information - The US cancels the so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, suspends the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export control and the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year. China adjusts the corresponding counter - measures [1] Disk Coking Coal - As of the close on October 30th, Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was reported at 1,332 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot was strengthening. The active contract was reported at 1,288 yuan/ton (-14). The basis was +114 yuan/ton (+14), and the January - May spread was -71 yuan/ton (+5.5) [1] Coke - As of the close on October 30th, the quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,570 yuan/ton (+0), and the third round of price increases was initiated in some areas. The active contract was reported at 1,786.5 yuan/ton (-14.5). The basis was -98 yuan/ton (+14.5), and the January - May spread was -140.5 yuan/ton (+2.5) [2] Supply Coking Coal - The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 85.06% (-2.27), and the capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was reported at 36.87% (+1.08). Mine production decreased, while the operation of coal washing plants increased [2] Coke - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.16% (-0.83), and the supply continued to shrink [2] Demand Coking Coal - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.16% (-0.83), and the demand decreased [2] Coke - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.33% (-0.22), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.95 million tons (-0.59) [3] Inventory Coking Coal - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 189.54 million tons (-15.87), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 289.62 million tons (-0.79), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.96 million tons (-5.36), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 885.26 (+32), and the port inventory was 275.65 million tons (+2.94) [3] Coke - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 37.49 million tons (-0.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.16 million tons (-6.28), and the port inventory was 200.09 million tons (+4.94) [3] Conclusion Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal continues to shrink. Spot transactions remain at a high level. The upstream mines reduce their clean coal inventory, while the downstream coking enterprises replenish their inventory, and the inventory reduction shifts downstream. Recently, the prices of coking coal in many places have been raised, and the overall spot is strong. It is recommended to hold long positions in JM01 and be vigilant against callbacks [3] Coke - Due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits, the pig iron output of steel mills has decreased, and coking enterprises have continuously reduced production, resulting in a tight supply. The second - round price increase of the spot has been implemented, and the third - round price increase has been initiated in some areas. It is recommended to hold long positions in J01 lightly [4] Strategy Suggestion - Hold long positions in JM01; hold long positions in J01 lightly [5]