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凯莱英(002821):结算节奏致单季收入持平,全年及未来有望保持较快增长
Ping An Securities·2025-10-31 09:10

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue remained flat at 1.442 billion yuan year-on-year, with a net profit of 183 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.46% [5]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in Q4 deliveries, projecting an annual revenue growth of 13%-15% [8]. - Emerging and large molecule businesses have shown high growth, with emerging business revenue increasing by 71.87% year-on-year and large molecule business revenue growing over 150% [8]. - The gross margin for emerging businesses improved to 30.55%, up 10.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for small molecule businesses remained stable at 46.99% [8]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.126 billion, 1.378 billion, and 1.740 billion yuan respectively, with expectations of a recovery in small molecule chemical business growth [8]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 7.825 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 5.805 billion yuan in 2024, followed by 6.700 billion yuan in 2025, 7.935 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.667 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. - The net profit is expected to decline to 949 million yuan in 2024, then recover to 1.126 billion yuan in 2025, 1.378 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.740 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 42.4% in 2024 to 44.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 16.3% to 18.0% over the same period [10]. - The company's total assets are estimated to grow from 19.289 billion yuan in 2024 to 23.427 billion yuan in 2027, with total liabilities increasing from 2.426 billion yuan to 2.962 billion yuan [9].