Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-31 08:59Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market had a mixed performance this week. Most major indices rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3%. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was influenced by Sino - US talks, rising at first and then falling back due to the lack of new short - term news [6][14]. - The bond market strengthened this week. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market. The economic fundamentals' recovery and the implementation of loose fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which may also drive long - term interest rates down [6]. - The commodity market is expected to remain volatile. Powell's hawkish stance pushed up the US dollar index, which had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, gold as a safe - haven asset offset some of the decline [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term due to the narrowing of the US - EU interest rate spread, and the Japanese yen is likely to be under pressure in the short term [6][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stock Market: The CSI 300 Index fell 0.43%, while the CSI 300 Stock Index Futures rose 0.10%. The overall A - share market rose slightly, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 3% and other indices rising less than 1%. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger. The market was affected by Sino - US talks, rising from Monday to Wednesday and falling back from Thursday to Friday. The trading volume increased compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6][14]. - Bond Market: The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.18% this week, with a weekly change of - 0.33BP. The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.62%. The central bank's operations are expected to inject liquidity, and the market sentiment was boosted. The allocation suggestion is to trade within a range [6]. - Commodity Market: The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.96%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.05%. The market is expected to remain volatile. The allocation suggestion is to mainly stay on the sidelines [6]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.50%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.53%. The US dollar index continued to rebound, the euro may be supported in the medium term, and the yen is likely to be under pressure. The allocation suggestion is to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [6][12]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Global Trade and Politics: Sino - US reached a consensus on the trade framework, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment declined. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown, and the tariff on Brazil was "symbolically" vetoed [12][17]. - Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were significant differences within the Fed on future interest - rate paths. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan kept their interest rates unchanged [12][17]. - Domestic Policy: The central bank's governor said that the moderately loose monetary policy would be implemented in detail, and new policy measures would be studied and reserved [14]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: In September, the annual growth rate of industrial enterprise profits above designated size was 21.6%. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 [13][18]. - US: In August, the monthly rate of the FHFA house price index was 0.4%, and the annual growth rate of the S&P/CS20 - city non - seasonally adjusted house price index was 1.6%. The Fed cut the upper limit of the interest rate to 4% [18]. - EU: The initial annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 1.3%, and the unemployment rate in September was 6.3%. The European Central Bank kept the deposit mechanism interest rate at 2% [12][18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as the manufacturing PMI of France, Germany, the eurozone, and the UK, the PPI monthly rate of the eurozone, the ADP employment data in the US, and the Chinese export and import data in October will be released [82].