Minsheng Securities·2025-10-31 08:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The completion of the sale of 25% equity in Lukai International is expected to bring approximately 1.65 billion RMB in investment income, benefiting from the phase of easing Sino-U.S. relations, which may improve the company's Q4 operations [2][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 75 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, primarily due to declining freight rates. However, gross profit increased by 2.4% year-on-year to 4.29 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 5.7%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2025: - Revenue: 75 billion RMB, down 13% year-on-year - Gross profit: 4.29 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 2.68 billion RMB, down 5% year-on-year - Investment income: 1.63 billion RMB, up 11.2% year-on-year [3][6]. - For Q3 2025: - Revenue: 24.5 billion RMB, down 17% year-on-year - Gross profit: 1.18 billion RMB, down 7.7% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 730 million RMB, down 17% year-on-year [3]. Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding: - Q1-Q3 2025 volumes: - Sea freight: 11.79 million TEUs, up 7.56% - Air freight: 66.4 thousand tons, down 11.82% - Rail freight: 39.2 million TEUs, down 12.5% - Vessel agency: 5.59 million trips, up 16.74% - Warehouse services: 21.54 million tons, up 6.9% [5]. - E-commerce logistics: - Q1-Q3 2025 volumes: - Logistics e-commerce platform: 2.917 million TEUs, up 55.41% - Cross-border e-commerce logistics: 0.46 million shipments, down 72.66% [6]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 110.3 billion RMB, 114.5 billion RMB, and 119.5 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 4.2 billion RMB, 4.46 billion RMB, and 4.68 billion RMB [6][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12 for 2025, decreasing to 10 by 2027 [6][7].