Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-31 08:58Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.49%, and the glass futures dropped by 0.92%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the market's interest - rate cut expectation, the price first rose and then weakened due to the expectation of increased production. The glass market had a similar trend to the soda ash market, but due to the sluggish real - estate sentiment, the decline of glass was more significant than that of soda ash. It is expected that next week, the soda ash price will mainly show a volatile and weakening trend, and the glass price will also face challenges due to supply and demand factors [6]. - For soda ash, the current operation of soda ash plants is relatively stable with no large - scale maintenance plans, and the overall production remains at a relatively high level. New production capacities such as those of Yuangxing Energy Phase II and Yingcheng Xindu Chemical are expected to be put into operation in December, which will further exacerbate the future oversupply situation. The demand from the float glass industry is mainly for daily production needs, and the short - term demand pull from photovoltaic glass is limited. For glass, the supply has shown an upward trend due to the restart of some cold - repaired production lines, but the "coal - to - gas" policy in the Shahe area and the policy of restricting new production capacity may relieve the marginal supply pressure. The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and although the automobile industry provides some support, it cannot offset the negative impact of the real - estate demand decline [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1200 - 1260, with stop - loss set at 1180 - 1300. For the FG2601 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 1080 - 1130, with stop - loss set at 1060 - 1150 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures fell 0.49% and glass futures fell 0.92% this week. Soda ash first rose under the interest - rate cut expectation and then weakened due to production increase expectation. Glass followed a similar trend but declined more due to real - estate sentiment [6]. - Market Outlook: Soda ash supply is expected to increase with new capacities coming online in December, and demand is relatively stable with limited short - term pull from photovoltaic glass. Glass supply may face short - term contraction due to policies, and demand from real - estate is weak while the automobile industry provides some support [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade SA2601 in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300, and operate FG2601 in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Both soda ash and glass futures prices declined this week [8]. - Spot Prices: Soda ash spot prices remained flat, and the basis was stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1185 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 50 yuan/ton. Glass spot prices weakened, and the basis also weakened but is expected to stabilize in the future. As of October 30, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1048 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 43 yuan/ton [14][19][22]. - Price Spread: The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week. As of October 30, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 144 yuan/ton [24][26] 3. Industry Chain Analysis - Production and Operation: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week. As of October 30, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 86.78% (up 3.3% week - on - week), and the weekly production was 75.76 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week). The number of cold - repaired glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production was stable. The production capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased [28][42][49]. - Profit and Cost: Soda ash enterprise profits declined, with negative profits affecting future production. Glass enterprise profits also decreased due to weakening spot prices and increased costs. As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - tonnage joint - soda process was - 180 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 126 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels all decreased [35][40]. - Inventory and Demand: Soda ash enterprise inventories decreased slightly due to weak downstream demand and the decline in photovoltaic glass production. Glass enterprise inventories also decreased, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down next week. The downstream deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days [53][57][61]