尿素早评20251031：情绪好转,反转存疑-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Current sentiment in the urea market has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics [1] - Urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the current situation of strong supply and weak demand [1] - Short - term upward drivers for urea are insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressures [1] - Suggest holding previously sold out - of - the - money put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1627 yuan/ton on October 30, down 17 yuan (-1.03%) from October 29 [1] - UR05: 1705 yuan/ton on October 30, down 12 yuan (-0.70%) from October 29 [1] - UR09: 1735 yuan/ton on October 30, down 12 yuan (-0.69%) from October 29 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1600 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Shanxi: 1470 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Henan: 1580 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Hebei: 1620 yuan/ton on October 30, down 10 yuan (-0.61%) from October 29 [1] - Northeast: 1610 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Jiangsu: 1590 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 105 yuan/ton on October 30, up 12 yuan from October 29 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 78 yuan/ton on October 30, down 5 yuan from October 29 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1030 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 930 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 2900 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2500 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong: 5084 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] - Melamine prices in Jiangsu: 5150 yuan/ton on both October 30 and 29, no change [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2601: opening price 1648 yuan/ton, highest price 1648 yuan/ton, lowest price 1618 yuan/ton, closing price 1627 yuan/ton, settlement price 1632 yuan/ton, and持仓量 270109 hands [1] Trading Strategy - Hold previously sold out - of - the - money put options [1] Potential Drivers to Watch - Old device renovation expectations in the chemical industry on the supply side [1] - New export quota issuance [1]