制造业PMI下行：经济与非经济因素的共振

Economic Indicators - October manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, a decline significantly higher than seasonal trends[6] - Weak demand continues to be a primary factor affecting economic performance, with recent policies failing to effectively counteract this trend[6] - The "holiday effect" from a longer National Day holiday impacted production and demand, contributing to the PMI drop[6] Production and Orders - Production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while new orders dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, both significantly below seasonal levels[7] - September industrial added value increased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, indicating a strong seasonal push before a sharp decline in October[6] Price Indices - Expected October PPI month-on-month reading is approximately -0.1%, with year-on-year reading likely to remain at -2.3%[7] - The producer price index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, while the main raw material purchasing price index also decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5%[7] Sector Performance - Construction PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, indicating weakening in the construction sector, while service sector PMI slightly improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%[7] - The phenomenon of "anti-involution" is affecting both supply and demand, potentially leading to negative impacts on employment and income[6]