丙烯期货专题报告：丙烯进出口结构

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is the world's largest importer of propylene, with imports of 2.0185 million tons in 2024, accounting for 34.28% of the global total trade volume. Due to continuous domestic capacity expansion, the import dependence has decreased from 14.14% in 2014 to 3.47% in 2024, and may decline further in 2026 [4][17]. - Propylene trade tends to be short - distance due to transportation conditions and costs. China's imports mainly come from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region of China. South Korea is the largest source of imports, and a potential reduction of 3.7 million tons/year of naphtha cracking capacity may affect propylene exports by 333,000 tons/year, but has limited impact on China's supply - demand pattern. Japan is the second - largest source, and the export volume from Taiwan region to China decreased significantly in 2024 due to a tariff increase [4][5]. - China's propylene exports are relatively small, with 73,200 tons exported in 2024, mainly to Taiwan, Mexico, and Malaysia, having a small impact on domestic supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Import Dependence May Further Decline - The global propylene trade volume has been declining, dropping from about 7 million tons in 2020 to about 5.8 million tons in 2024 [8]. - China's propylene import volume has been decreasing, and the import dependence has declined from 14.14% in 2014 to 3.47% in 2024. In 2026, there will be a large - scale capacity expansion in China, which may further reduce the import dependence [17]. - The 2026 propylene capacity expansion plans cover multiple regions in China, with a total planned capacity of 655,000 tons/year from various enterprises using different processes such as naphtha cracking, PDH, MTO, and CTO [27]. 3.2 The Impact of South Korea's Cracking Capacity Reduction on Propylene Imports Is Small - Propylene trade prefers short - distance transportation. China mainly imports propylene from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region of China. South Korea is the largest source, with imports of 1.4885 million tons in 2024, accounting for 73.75% of the total imports [29]. - South Korea has a propylene production capacity of 11.165 million tons/year, and about 20% of its production is exported. Facing the crisis of "declining competitiveness", South Korea may cut 3.7 million tons/year of naphtha cracking capacity, which may affect propylene exports by 333,000 tons/year, but has limited impact on China's supply - demand pattern [34][41]. - Japan is the second - largest source of China's propylene imports. As of 2024, its propylene production capacity is about 7.14 million tons/year, with a production of about 4.44 million tons and an export volume of 568,100 tons, accounting for 12.8% of its domestic production. The export volume from Taiwan region to China decreased in 2024 due to tariff adjustments [41][47]. - There are mutual imports and exports among South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region, mainly due to low transportation costs, device maintenance, and group - internal contract supply. China's propylene exports are small, having a limited impact on domestic supply - demand balance [53][54].