OPPEIN(SH:603833) CMS·2025-10-31 09:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue performance in Q3 2025, attributed to industry pressures, but demonstrated effective cost control with improved gross margins across product categories and stable operating cash flow, indicating enhanced profit quality [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from its "whole home" strategy and organizational restructuring, which align with changing consumer habits and channel dynamics, potentially increasing market share [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 13.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.832 billion yuan, down 9.77% [7]. - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 4.973 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.10% decline year-on-year, while net profit dropped 21.79% to 814 million yuan [7]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.19%, up 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, despite rising expense ratios leading to a decline in net profit margin [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to decline further in 2025 before recovering in subsequent years, with estimates of 17.970 billion yuan in 2025, 18.999 billion yuan in 2026, and 20.395 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9]. - Net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.431 billion yuan, 2.665 billion yuan, and 2.966 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.4, 12.2, and 11.0 [2][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to be 33.387 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 13.403 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of approximately 40.1% [8][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 12.5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 13.5% by 2027 [10].