美国消费行业9月跟踪报告：美国政府停摆，信心指数进一步下滑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on the consumer sector, particularly essential consumer goods, due to ongoing economic pressures and declining consumer confidence [4][58]. Core Insights - Consumer confidence continues to decline, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 53.6 in October from 55.1 in September, marking the third consecutive month of decline [1][7]. - Inflation appears to be stabilizing, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in September, while core CPI also increased by 3.0% [9][12]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September and job openings falling to 7.227 million [13][17]. - The essential consumer goods sector is experiencing mixed performance, with alcohol prices rebounding moderately while food and beverage inflation shows significant divergence across categories [24][28]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Consumer confidence is declining, with the confidence index at 53.6 in October, down from 55.1 in September [1][7]. - Inflation is stabilizing, with September CPI at 3.0% year-on-year and core CPI also at 3.0% [9][12]. - The labor market is weak, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs reported by ADP in September [13][17]. - Credit data shows a decrease in revolving credit by $5.958 billion in August, indicating cautious consumer borrowing [19]. Essential Consumer Goods - Alcohol prices have shown a moderate rebound, driven by strong recovery in spirits prices, while wine prices continue to decline [24][28]. - The food and beverage sector shows significant inflation divergence, with tobacco CPI above 5.0% and dairy CPI remaining weak [28][55]. Stock Market Performance - The discretionary consumer goods sector outperformed, closing up 5.8%, while essential consumer goods closed down 1.4% [57]. - Essential consumer goods ETF saw a net inflow of $670 million, reflecting rising investor confidence [57][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining caution in the consumer sector, focusing on essential consumer goods due to economic uncertainties and declining consumer confidence [4][58].